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Portions of ice sheets grounded deep beneath sea level can disintegrate if tall ice cliffs at the ice-ocean boundary start to collapse under their own weight. This process, called marine ice cliff instability, could lead to catastrophic retreat of sections of West Antarctica on decadal-to-century time scales. Here we use a model that resolves flow and failure of ice to show that dynamic thinning can slow or stabilize cliff retreat, but when ice thickness increases rapidly upstream from the ice cliff, there is a transition to catastrophic collapse. However, even if vulnerable locations like Thwaites Glacier start to collapse, small resistive forces from sea-ice and calved debris can slow down or arrest retreat, reducing the potential for sustained ice sheet collapse. 

Quantifying the impact of submarine melting on calving is central to understanding the response of marine‐terminating glaciers to ocean forcing. Modeling and observational studies suggest the potential for submarine melting to amplify calving (the calving multiplier effect), but there is little consensus as to under what conditions this occurs. Here, by viewing a marine‐terminating glacier as an elastic beam, we propose an analytical basis for understanding the presence or absence of the calving multiplier effect. We show that as a terminus becomes undercut it becomes more susceptible to both serac failure (calving only of ice that is undercut, driven by vertical imbalance) and rotational failure (full‐thickness calving of ice behind the grounding line, driven by rotational imbalance). By deriving analytical stress thresholds for these two forms of calving, we suggest that the dominant of the two calving styles is determined principally by the shape of melt‐undercutting. Uniform undercutting extending from the bed to the waterline promotes serac failure and no multiplier effect, while glaciers experiencing linear undercutting that is greatest at the bed and zero at the waterline are more likely to experience rotational failure and a multiplier effect. Our study offers a quantitative framework for understanding where and when the calving multiplier effect occurs, and, therefore, a route to parameterizing the effect in ice sheet‐scale models.