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Recreational fisheries are increasingly vulnerable to environmental degradation. Understanding the dynamics of nature-based recreation and the attendant tourism economy requires an integrative modeling framework that captures the interplay of seasonality, uncertainty, and users’ response to ecological stressors. This study presents a model focusing on Lake Okeechobee—a recreational bass fishery in USA. Landuse activities surrounding the lake contribute to elevated nutrient levels, resulting in harmful algal blooms (HABs) that affect recreational activities. Using primary and secondary data and stochastic input-output model, the study quantifies tourism-related economic losses due to HABs. In 2019, recreational fishing generated about $369 million in economic output, supporting 2700 jobs and $122 million in earnings. Under less severe and extreme HAB scenarios, regional earnings could decline by 7.74% and 44.32%, respectively. These findings underscore the importance of understanding connections between environmental quality, system uncertainty, seasonality, user behavior, and economic impacts when planning for sustainable nature-based tourism.