The 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence involved unexpected ruptures across numerous fault segments. We present 3D dynamic rupture simulations to illuminate the complex dynamics of the earthquake doublet. Our models are constrained by observations available within days of the sequence and deliver timely, mechanically consistent explanations of the unforeseen rupture paths, diverse rupture speeds, multiple slip episodes, heterogeneous fault offsets, locally strong shaking, and fault system interactions. Our simulations link both earthquakes, matching geodetic and seismic observations and reconciling regional seismotectonics, rupture dynamics, and ground motions of a fault system represented by 10 curved dipping segments and embedded in a heterogeneous stress field. The Mw 7.8 earthquake features delayed backward branching from a steeply branching splay fault, not requiring supershear speeds. The asymmetrical dynamics of the distinct, bilateral Mw 7.7 earthquake are explained by heterogeneous fault strength, prestress orientation, fracture energy, and static stress changes from the previous earthquake. Our models explain the northward deviation of its eastern rupture and the minimal slip observed on the Sürgü fault. 3D dynamic rupture scenarios can elucidate unexpected observations shortly after major earthquakes, providing timely insights for data-driven analysis and hazard assessment toward a comprehensive, physically consistent understanding of the mechanics of multifault systems.
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Abstract Low‐angle normal faults (LANFs; dip <30°) accommodate kilometers of crustal extension, yet it remains unclear whether these faults can host large earthquakes or if they predominantly creep aseismically. Most active LANFs typically slip at rates of <3 mm/year. Here, we report U‐Th ages from a series of distinct levels of formerly shallow‐living corals killed by uplift‐induced emergence of the footwall of one of the world's fastest‐slipping LANFs, the Mai'iu fault in Papua New Guinea, which slips at rates of 8–12 mm/year. Coral ages and coastal morphology indicate punctuated episodic uplift events consistent with seismic slip on the Mai'iu fault. Maximum episodic uplift increments of 0.5–1.8 m imply earthquakes of
M w > 7. We present the first coral paleoseismological record of normal fault earthquakes, which constrain the timing and surface uplift patterns of multiple LANF seismic cycles and confirm that LANFs can slip in large (M w > 7) earthquakes. -
Abstract We use densely spaced campaign GPS observations and laboratory friction experiments on fault rocks from one of the world's most rapidly slipping low‐angle normal faults, the Mai'iu fault in Papua New Guinea, to investigate the nature of interseismic deformation on active low‐angle normal faults. GPS velocities reveal 8.3 ± 1.2 mm/year of horizontal extension across the Mai'iu fault, and are fit well by dislocation models with shallow fault locking (above 2 km depth), or by deeper locking (from ~5–16 km depth) together with shallower creep. Laboratory friction experiments show that gouges from the shallowest portion of the fault zone are predominantly weak and velocity‐strengthening, while fault rocks deformed at greater depths are stronger and velocity‐weakening. Evaluating the geodetic and friction results together with geophysical and microstructural evidence for mixed‐mode seismic and aseismic slip at depth, we find that the Mai'iu fault is most likely strongly locked at depths of ~5–16 km and creeping updip and downdip of this region. Our results suggest that the Mai'iu fault and other active low‐angle normal faults can slip in large (Mw > 7) earthquakes despite near‐surface interseismic creep on frictionally stable clay‐rich gouges.
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Abstract Inherited structural, compositional, thermal, and mechanical properties from previous tectonic phases can affect the deformation style of lithosphere entering a new stage of the Wilson cycle. When continental crust jams a subduction zone, the transition from subduction to extension can occur rapidly, as is the case following slab breakoff of the leading subducted oceanic slab. This study explores the extent to which geometric and physical properties of the subduction phase affect the subsequent deformation style and surface morphology of post subduction extensional systems. We focus on regions that transition rapidly from subduction to extension, retaining lithospheric heterogeneities and cold thermal structure inherited from subduction. We present numerical models suggesting that following failed subduction of continental crust (with or without slab breakoff), the extensional deformation style depends on the strength and dip of the preexisting subduction thrust. Our models predict three distinct extensional modes based on these inherited properties: (1) reactivation of the subduction thrust and development of a rolling‐hinge detachment that exhumes deep crustal material in a domal structure prior to onset of an asymmetric rift; (2) partial reactivation of a low‐angle subduction thrust, which is eventually abandoned as high‐angle, “domino”‐style normal faults cut and extend the crust above the inherited thrust; and (3) no reactivation of the subduction fault but instead localized rifting above the previous subduction margin as new rift‐bounding, high‐angle normal faults form. We propose that the first mode is well exemplified by the young, rapidly exhumed Dayman‐Suckling metamorphic core complex that is exhuming today in Papua New Guinea.