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Abstract Gravitational-wave detectors are now making it possible to investigate how the merger rate of binary black holes (BBHs) evolves with redshift. In this study, we examine whether the BBH merger rate of isolated binaries deviates from a scaled star formation rate density (SFRD)—a frequently used model in state-of-the-art research. To address this question, we conduct population synthesis simulations using COMPAS with a grid of stellar evolution models, calculate their cosmological merger rates, and compare them to a scaled SFRD. We find that our simulated rates deviate by factors up to 3.5 atz∼ 0 and 5 atz∼ 9 due to two main phenomena: (i) the formation efficiency of BBHs is an order of magnitude higher at low metallicities than at solar metallicity, and (ii) BBHs experience a wide range of delays (from a few megayears to many gigayears) between formation and merger. The deviations are similar when comparing to a delayed SFRD, and even larger (up to ∼10×) when comparing to SFRD-based models scaled to the local merger rate. Interestingly, our simulations find that the BBH delay time distribution is redshift dependent, increasing the complexity of the redshift distribution of mergers. We find similar results for simulated merger rates of black hole–neutron stars (BHNSs) and binary neutron stars (BNSs). We conclude that the rate of BBH, BHNS, and BNS mergers from the isolated channel can significantly deviate from a scaled SFRD, and that future measurements of the merger rate will provide insights into the formation pathways of gravitational-wave sources. 

Abstract Gravitational-wave (GW) detectors are observing compact object mergers from increasingly far distances, revealing the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH)—and soon the black hole–neutron star (BHNS) and binary neutron star (BNS)—merger rate. To help interpret these observations, we investigate the expected redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate from the isolated binary evolution channel. We present a publicly available catalog of compact object mergers and their accompanying cosmological merger rates from population synthesis simulations conducted with the COMPAS software. To explore the impact of uncertainties in stellar and binary evolution, our simulations use two-parameter grids of binary evolution models that vary the common-envelope efficiency with mass transfer accretion efficiency and supernova (SN) remnant mass prescription with SN natal kick velocity, respectively. We quantify the redshift evolution of our simulated merger rates using the local (z∼ 0) rate, the redshift at which the merger rate peaks, and the normalized differential rates (as a proxy for slope). We find that although the local rates span a range of ∼10³across our model variations, their redshift evolutions are remarkably similar for BBHs, BHNSs, and BNSs, with differentials typically within a factor 3 and peaks ofz≈ 1.2–2.4 across models. Furthermore, several trends in our simulated rates are correlated with the model parameters we explore. We conclude that future observations of the redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate can help constrain binary models for stellar evolution and GW formation channels.