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Abstract Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts’ expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the “many Arctics” concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of “many Arctics” for policy and future governance. 

Abstract The Arctic is an epicenter of complex environmental and socioeconomic change. Strengthened connections between Arctic and non-Arctic systems could threaten or enhance Arctic sustainability, but studies of external influences on the Arctic are scattered and fragmented in academic literature. Here, we review and synthesize how external influences have been analyzed in Arctic-coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) literature. Results show that the Arctic is affected by numerous external influences nearby and faraway, including global markets, climate change, governance, military security, and tourism. However, apart from climate change, these connections are infrequently the focus of Arctic CHANS analyses. We demonstrate how Arctic CHANS research could be enhanced and research gaps could be filled using the holistic framework of metacoupling (human–nature interactions within as well as between adjacent and distant systems). Our perspectives provide new approaches to enhance the sustainability of Arctic systems in an interconnected world.