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Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy M87 provided the first image of the accretion environment on horizon scales. General relativity (GR) predicts that the image of the shadow should be nearly circular given the inclination angle of the black hole M87*. A robust detection of ellipticity in image reconstructions of M87* could signal new gravitational physics on horizon scales. Here we analyze whether the imaging parameters used in EHT analyses are sensitive to ring ellipticity, and measure the constraints on the ellipticity of M87*. We find that the top set is unable to recover ellipticity. Even for simple geometric models, the true ellipticity is biased low, preferring circular rings. Therefore, to place a constraint on the ellipticity of M87*, we measure the ellipticity of 550 synthetic data sets produced from GRMHD simulations. We find that images with intrinsic axis ratios of 2:1 are consistent with the ellipticity seen from EHT image reconstructions. 

We present estimates for the number of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) for which the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT) can identify the black hole “shadow”, along with estimates for how many black hole masses and spins the ngEHT can expect to constrain using measurements of horizon-resolved emission structure. Building on prior theoretical studies of SMBH accretion flows and analyses carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) collaboration, we construct a simple geometric model for the polarized emission structure around a black hole, and we associate parameters of this model with the three physical quantities of interest. We generate a large number of realistic synthetic ngEHT datasets across different assumed source sizes and flux densities, and we estimate the precision with which our defined proxies for physical parameters could be measured from these datasets. Under April weather conditions and using an observing frequency of 230 GHz, we predict that a “Phase 1” ngEHT can potentially measure ∼50 black hole masses, ∼30 black hole spins, and ∼7 black hole shadows across the entire sky. 

Abstract We present an in-depth analysis of the newly proposed correlation function in visibility space, between the E and B modes of linear polarization, hereafter the EB correlation, for a set of time-averaged general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations compared with the phase map from different semianalytic models and the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 2017 data for M87*. We demonstrate that the phase map of time-averaged EB correlation contains novel information that might be linked to black hole (BH) spin, accretion state, and electron temperature. A detailed comparison with a semianalytic approach with different azimuthal expansion modes shows that to recover the morphology of real/imaginary part of the correlation function and its phase, we require higher orders of azimuthal modes. To extract the phase features, we use Zernike polynomial reconstruction developing an empirical metric to break degeneracies between models with different BH spins that are qualitatively similar. We use a set of geometrical ring models with various magnetic and velocity field morphologies, showing that both the image space and visibility-based EB -correlation morphologies in magnetically arrested disk  simulations can be explained with simple fluid and magnetic field geometries as used in ring models. Standard and normal evolutions by contrast are harder to model, demonstrating that the simple fluid and magnetic field geometries of ring models are not sufficient to describe them owing to higher Faraday rotation depths. A qualitative comparison with the EHT data demonstrates that some of the features in the phase of EB correlation might be well explained by the current models for BH spins and electron temperatures, while others require larger theoretical surveys. 

Abstract The direct detection of a bright, ring-like structure in horizon-resolving images of M87* by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a striking validation of general relativity. The angular size and shape of the ring is a degenerate measure of the location of the emission region, mass, and spin of the black hole. However, we show that the observation of multiple rings, corresponding to the low-order photon rings, can break this degeneracy and produce mass and spin measurements independent of the shape of the rings. We describe two potential experiments that would measure the spin. In the first, observations of the direct emission and n = 1 photon ring are made at multiple epochs with different emission locations. This method is conceptually similar to spacetime constraints that arise from variable structures (or hot spots) in that it breaks the near-perfect degeneracy between emission location, mass, and spin for polar observers using temporal variability. In the second, observations of the direct emission and n = 1 and n = 2 photon rings are made during a single epoch. For both schemes, additional observations comprise a test of general relativity. Thus, comparisons of EHT observations in 2017 and 2018 may be capable of producing the first horizon-scale spin estimates of M87* inferred from strong lensing alone. Additional observation campaigns from future high-frequency, Earth-sized, and space-based radio interferometers can produce high-precision tests of general relativity. 

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has produced images of M87* and Sagittarius A*, and will soon produce time sequences of images, or movies. In anticipation of this, we describe a technique to measure the rotation rate, or pattern speed Ω_p, from movies using an autocorrelation technique. We validate the technique on Gaussian random field models with a known rotation rate and apply it to a library of synthetic images of Sgr A* based on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations. We predict that EHT movies will have Ω_p≈ 1° perGMc⁻³, which is of order 15% of the Keplerian orbital frequency in the emitting region. We can plausibly attribute the slow rotation seen in our models to the pattern speed of inward-propagating spiral shocks. We also find that Ω_pdepends strongly on inclination. Application of this technique will enable us to compare future EHT movies with the clockwise rotation of Sgr A* seen in near-infrared flares by GRAVITY. Pattern speed analysis of future EHT observations of M87* and Sgr A* may also provide novel constraints on black hole inclination and spin, as well as an independent measurement of black hole mass. 

Abstract Imaging algorithms form powerful analysis tools for very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data analysis. However, these tools cannot measure certain image features (e.g., ring diameter) by their nonparametric nature. This is unfortunate since these image features are often related to astrophysically relevant quantities such as black hole mass. This paper details a new general image feature-extraction technique that applies to a wide variety of VLBI image reconstructions calledvariational image domain analysis. Unlike previous tools, variational image domain analysis can be applied to any image reconstruction regardless of its structure. To demonstrate its flexibility, we analyze thousands of reconstructions from previous Event Horizon Telescope synthetic data sets and recover image features such as diameter, orientation, and ellipticity. By measuring these features, our technique can help extract astrophysically relevant quantities such as the mass and orientation of the central black hole in M87. 

We explore the plasma matter content in the innermost accretion disk/jet in M87* as relevant for an enthusiastic search for the signatures of anti-matter in the next generation of the Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHT). We model the impact of non-zero positron-to-electron ratio using different emission models, including a constant electron to magnetic pressure (constant βe model) with a population of non-thermal electrons as well as an R-beta model populated with thermal electrons. In the former case, we pick a semi-analytic fit to the force-free region of a general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation, while in the latter case, we analyze the GRMHD simulations directly. In both cases, positrons are being added at the post-processing level. We generate polarized images and spectra for some of these models and find out that at the radio frequencies, both of the linear and the circular polarizations are enhanced with every pair added. On the contrary, we show that, at higher frequencies, a substantial positron fraction washes out the circular polarization. We report strong degeneracies between different emission models and the positron fraction, though our non-thermal models show more sensitivities to the pair fraction than the thermal models. We conclude that a large theoretical image library is indeed required to fully understand the trends probed in this study, and to place them in the context of a large set of parameters which also affect polarimetric images, such as magnetic field strength, black hole spin, and detailed aspects of the electron temperature and the distribution function. 

Abstract We investigate general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to determine the physical origin of the twisty patterns of linear polarization seen in spatially resolved black hole images and explain their morphological dependence on black hole spin. By characterizing the observed emission with a simple analytic ring model, we find that the twisty morphology is determined by the magnetic field structure in the emitting region. Moreover, the dependence of this twisty pattern on spin can be attributed to changes in the magnetic field geometry that occur due to the frame dragging. By studying an analytic ring model, we find that the roles of Doppler boosting and lensing are subdominant. Faraday rotation may cause a systematic shift in the linear polarization pattern, but we find that its impact is subdominant for models with strong magnetic fields and modest ion-to-electron temperature ratios. Models with weaker magnetic fields are much more strongly affected by Faraday rotation and have more complicated emission geometries than can be captured by a ring model. However, these models are currently disfavoured by the recent EHT observations of M87*. Our results suggest that linear polarization maps can provide a probe of the underlying magnetic field structure around a black hole, which may then be usable to indirectly infer black hole spins. The generality of these results should be tested with alternative codes, initial conditions, and plasma physics prescriptions. 

We propose the tracing of the motion of a shearing hot spot near the Sgr A* source through a dynamical image reconstruction algorithm, StarWarps. Such a hot spot may form as the exhaust of magnetic reconnection in a current sheet near the black hole horizon. A hot spot that is ejected from the current sheet into an orbit in the accretion disk may shear and diffuse due to instabilities at its boundary during its orbit, resulting in a distinct signature. We subdivide the motion into two different phases: the first phase refers to the appearance of the hot spot modeled as a bright blob, followed by a subsequent shearing phase. We employ different observational array configurations, including EHT (2017, 2022) and the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope (ngEHTp1, ngEHT) arrays, with several new sites added, and make dynamical image reconstructions for each of them. Subsequently, we infer the hot spot angular image location in the first phase, followed by the axes ratio and the ellipse area in the second phase. We focus on the direct observability of the orbiting hot spot in the sub-mm wavelength. Our analysis demonstrates that for this particular simulation, the newly added dishes are better able to trace the first phase as well as part of the second phase before the flux is reduced substantially, compared to the EHT arrays. The algorithm used in this work can be easily extended to other types of dynamics, as well as different shearing timescales. More simulations are required to prove whether the current set of newly proposed sites are sufficient to resolve any motions near variable sources, such as Sgr A*. 

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has led to the first images of a supermassive black hole, revealing the central compact objects in the elliptical galaxy M87 and the Milky Way. Proposed upgrades to this array through the next-generation EHT (ngEHT) program would sharply improve the angular resolution, dynamic range, and temporal coverage of the existing EHT observations. These improvements will uniquely enable a wealth of transformative new discoveries related to black hole science, extending from event-horizon-scale studies of strong gravity to studies of explosive transients to the cosmological growth and influence of supermassive black holes. Here, we present the key science goals for the ngEHT and their associated instrument requirements, both of which have been formulated through a multi-year international effort involving hundreds of scientists worldwide.