Search for: All records

Objectives We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic. Methods We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs. Results The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14. Conclusions The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings. 

Abstract The gut is continuously invaded by diverse bacteria from the diet and the environment, yet microbiome composition is relatively stable over time for host species ranging from mammals to insects, suggesting host-specific factors may selectively maintain key species of bacteria. To investigate host specificity, we used gnotobiotic Drosophila , microbial pulse-chase protocols, and microscopy to investigate the stability of different strains of bacteria in the fly gut. We show that a host-constructed physical niche in the foregut selectively binds bacteria with strain-level specificity, stabilizing their colonization. Primary colonizers saturate the niche and exclude secondary colonizers of the same strain, but initial colonization by Lactobacillus species physically remodels the niche through production of a glycan-rich secretion to favor secondary colonization by unrelated commensals in the Acetobacter genus. Our results provide a mechanistic framework for understanding the establishment and stability of a multi-species intestinal microbiome. 

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH₄) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q₁₀value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q₁₀values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model (ecosys) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH₄production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH₄production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH₄production. CH₄production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q₁₀values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q₁₀values of CH₄production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q₁₀values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q₁₀value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios. 

Abstract Microorganisms are the primary engines of biogeochemical processes and foundational to the provisioning of ecosystem services to human society. Free‐living microbial communities (microbiomes) and their functioning are now known to be highly sensitive to environmental change. Given microorganisms' capacity for rapid evolution, evolutionary processes could play a role in this response. Currently, however, few models of biogeochemical processes explicitly consider how microbial evolution will affect biogeochemical responses to environmental change. Here, we propose a conceptual framework for explicitly integrating evolution into microbiome–functioning relationships. We consider how microbiomes respond simultaneously to environmental change via four interrelated processes that affect overall microbiome functioning (physiological acclimation, demography, dispersal and evolution). Recent evidence in both the laboratory and the field suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics occur simultaneously within microbiomes; however, the implications for biogeochemistry under environmental change will depend on the timescales over which these processes contribute to a microbiome's response. Over the long term, evolution may play an increasingly important role for microbially driven biogeochemical responses to environmental change, particularly to conditions without recent historical precedent. 

Metagenomes encode an enormous diversity of proteins, reflecting a multiplicity of functions and activities. Exploration of this vast sequence space has been limited to a comparative analysis against reference microbial genomes and protein families derived from those genomes. Here, to examine the scale of yet untapped functional diversity beyond what is currently possible through the lens of reference genomes, we develop a computational approach to generate reference-free protein families from the sequence space in metagenomes. We analyze 26,931 metagenomes and identify 1.17 billion protein sequences longer than 35 amino acids with no similarity to any sequences from 102,491 reference genomes or the Pfam database. Using massively parallel graph-based clustering, we group these proteins into 106,198 novel sequence clusters with more than 100 members, doubling the number of protein families obtained from the reference genomes clustered using the same approach. We annotate these families on the basis of their taxonomic, habitat, geographical, and gene neighborhood distributions and, where sufficient sequence diversity is available, predict protein three-dimensional models, revealing novel structures. Overall, our results uncover an enormously diverse functional space, highlighting the importance of further exploring the microbial functional dark matter.