Future searches for gravitational waves from space will be sensitive to double compact objects in our Milky Way. We present new simulations of the populations of double black holes (BHBHs), BH neutron stars (BHNSs), and double neutron stars (NSNSs) that will be detectable by the planned space-based gravitational-wave detector called Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). For our estimates, we use an empirically informed model of the metallicity-dependent star formation history of the Milky Way. We populate it using an extensive suite of binary population-synthesis predictions for varying assumptions relating to mass transfer, common-envelope, supernova kicks, remnant masses, and wind mass-loss physics. For a 4(10) yr LISA mission, we predict between 30–370(50–550) detections over these variations, out of which 6–154 (9–238) are BHBHs, 2–198 (3–289) are BHNSs, and 3–35 (4–57) are NSNSs. We expect that about 50% (60%) can be distinguished from double white dwarf sources based on their mass or eccentricity and localization. Specifically, for about 10% (15%), we expect to be able to determine chirp masses better than 10%. For 13% (13%), we expect sky-localizations better than 1°. We discuss how the variations in the physics assumptions alter the distribution of properties of the detectable systems, even whenmore »
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Gravitational Wave Sources in Our Galactic Backyard: Predictions for BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS Binaries Detectable with LISA
Gravitational-wave detectors are starting to reveal the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) merger rate,
RBBH( z). We make predictions for RBBH( z) as a function of black hole mass for systems originating from isolated binaries. To this end, we investigate correlations between the delay time and black hole mass by means of the suite of binary population synthesis simulations, COMPAS. We distinguish two channels: the common envelope (CE), and the stable Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF) channel, characterized by whether the system has experienced a common envelope or not. We find that the CE channel preferentially produces BHs with masses below about 30 M⊙and short delay times ( tdelay≲ 1 Gyr), while the stable RLOF channel primarily forms systems with BH masses above 30 M⊙and long delay times ( tdelay≳ 1 Gyr). We provide a new fit for the metallicity-dependent specific star formation rate density based on the Illustris TNG simulations, and use this to convert the delay time distributions into a prediction of RBBH( z). This leads to a distinct redshift evolution of RBBH( z) for high and low primary BH masses. We furthermore find that, at high redshift, RBBH( z) is dominated by the CE channel, while at low redshift, it contains a large contribution (∼40%) from the stable RLOF channel.more »
Evidence for X-Ray Emission in Excess to the Jet-afterglow Decay 3.5 yr after the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW 170817: A New Emission Component
For the first ∼3 yrs after the binary neutron star merger event GW 170817, the radio and X-ray radiation has been dominated by emission from a structured relativistic off-axis jet propagating into a low-density medium with
n< 0.01 cm−3. We report on observational evidence for an excess of X-ray emission at δt> 900 days after the merger. With L x≈ 5 × 1038erg s−1at 1234 days, the recently detected X-ray emission represents a ≥3.2 σ(Gaussian equivalent) deviation from the universal post-jet-break model that best fits the multiwavelength afterglow at earlier times. In the context of JetFitafterglow models, current data represent a departure with statistical significance ≥3.1 σ, depending on the fireball collimation, with the most realistic models showing excesses at the level of ≥3.7 σ. A lack of detectable 3 GHz radio emission suggests a harder broadband spectrum than the jet afterglow. These properties are consistent with the emergence of a new emission component such as synchrotron radiation from a mildly relativistic shock generated by the expanding merger ejecta, i.e., a kilonova afterglow. In this context, we present a set of ab initio numerical relativity binary neutron star (BNS) merger simulations that show that an X-ray excess supports the presence of a high-velocity tail in the mergermore »