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  1. Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has profound impacts on weather and climate phenomena, and thus changes in its activity have important implications under human-induced global climate change. Here, the time at which the MJO change signal emerges from natural variability under anthropogenic warming is investigated. Using simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble forced by the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP370 scenario, an increase in ensemble mean MJO precipitation amplitude and a smaller increase in MJO circulation amplitude occur by the end of the 21 st century, consistent with previous studies. Notably, the MJO precipitation amplitude change signal generally emerges more than a decade earlier than that of MJO wind amplitude. MJO amplitude changes also emerge earlier over the eastern Pacific than other parts of the tropics. Our findings provide valuable information on the potential changes of MJO variability with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme events. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2024
  2. Changes to the tropical eastern North Pacific Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) at the end of the 21st century and implications for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis are examined in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP585) scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data set. Multimodel mean composite low-level wind and precipitation anomalies associated with the leading intraseasonal mode indicate that precipitation amplitude increases while wind amplitude weakens under global warming, consistent with previous studies for the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The eastern North Pacific intraseasonal precipitation/wind pattern also tends to shift southwestward in a warmer climate, associated with weaker positive precipitation anomalies near the coast of Mexico and Central America during the enhanced convection/westerly wind phase. Implications for the modulation of TC genesis by the leading intraseasonal mode are then explored using an empirical genesis potential index (GPI). In the historical simulation, GPI shows positive anomalies in the eastern North Pacific in the convectively enhanced phase of the ISO. The ISO’s modulation of GPI weakens near the coast of Mexico and Central America with warming, associated with a southward shift of GPI anomalies. Further examination of the contribution from individual environmental variables that enter the GPI shows that relative humidity and vorticity changes during ISO events weaken positive GPI anomalies near the Mexican coast with warming and make genesis more favorable to the southwest. The impact of vertical shear anomaly changes is also to favor genesis away from the coast. These results suggest a weaker modulation of TCs near the Mexican Coast by the ISO in a warmer climate. 
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  3. Mechanisms that cause changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) precipitation amplitude under global warming are examined in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under global warming in representative concentration pathway 8.5, MJO precipitation intensifies in most models relative to current climate while MJO wind circulations increase at a slower rate or weaken. Changes in MJO precipitation intensity are partially controlled by changes in moisture profiles and static stability. The vertical moisture gradient increases in the lower half of the troposphere in response to the surface warming, while the vertical static stability gradient increases due to preferential warming in the upper troposphere. A nondimensional quantity called α has been defined that gives the efficiency of vertical advective moistening associated with diabatic processes in the free troposphere, and has been hypothesized by previous studies to regulate MJO amplitude. The term α is proportional to the vertical moisture gradient and inversely proportional to static stability. Under global warming, the increased vertical moisture gradient makes α larger in models, despite increased static stability. Although α increases in all models, MJO precipitation amplitude decreases in some models, contrary to expectations. It is demonstrated that in these models more top-heavy MJO diabatic heating with warming overwhelms the effect of increased α to make vertical moisture advection less efficient. 
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  4. Abstract

    The impacts of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and ocean feedbacks on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) are investigated with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5) in an idealized aquaplanet configuration. The climate response associated with quadrupled CO2concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) warming are examined in both the uncoupled CAM5 and a version coupled to a slab ocean model. Increasing CO2concentrations while holding SST fixed produces only small impacts to MJO characteristics, while the SST change resulting from increased CO2concentrations produces a significant increase in MJO precipitation anomaly amplitude but smaller increase in MJO circulation anomaly amplitude, consistent with previous studies. MJO propagation speed increases in both coupled simulations with quadrupling of CO2and uncoupled simulations with the same climatological surface temperature warming imposed, although propagation speed is increased more with coupling. While climatological SST changes are identical between coupled and uncoupled runs, other aspects of the basic state such as zonal winds do not change identically. For example, climate warming produces stronger superrotation and weaker mean lower tropospheric easterlies in the coupled run, which contributes to greater increases in MJO eastward propagation speed with warming through its effect on moisture advection. The column process, representing the sum of vertical moist static energy (MSE) advection and radiative heating anomalies, also supports faster eastward propagation with warming in the coupled run. How differing basic states between coupled and uncoupled runs contribute to this behavior is discussed in more detail.

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  5. Abstract

    Midlatitude stationary waves are relatively persistent large‐scale longitudinal variations in atmospheric circulation. Although recent case studies have suggested a close connection between stationary waves and extreme weather events, little is known about the global‐scale linkage between stationary waves and wildfire activity, as well as the potential changes in this relationship in a warmer climate. Here, by analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble, we show that a zonal wavenumber 5–6 stationary wave pattern tends to synchronize wildfire occurrences across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The alternation of upper‐troposphere ridges and troughs creates a hemispheric‐scale spatial pattern of alternating hot/dry and cold/wet conditions, which increases or decreases wildfire occurrence, respectively. More persistent high‐pressure conditions drastically increase wildfire probabilities. Even though the dynamics of these waves change little in response to anthropogenic global warming, the corresponding midlatitude wildfire variability is projected to intensify due to changes in climate background conditions.

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