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Abstract Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH₄), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH₄production in peatlands will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C‐CH₄) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ¹³C‐CH₄is used in top‐down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH₄production pathways and associated δ¹³C‐CH₄values is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ¹³C‐CH₄values from high‐latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH₄stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal‐Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ¹³C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (−61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost‐free bogs (−74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (−81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄was best explained by sedge cover, CH₄concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH (r² = 0.50,p < 0.001). Emitted δ¹³C‐CH₄varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄. We calculated a mixed atmospheric δ¹³C‐CH₄value for northern peatlands of −65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this value is more sensitive to landscape drying than wetting under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ¹³C‐CH₄values are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models. 

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.