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Abstract The 5-year (2024 - 2028) World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS) project aims to accelerate research on environmental forecasting and services in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. As climate change intensifies, rapid transformations in the polar regions have complex impacts on local and global socio-ecological systems, exacerbating existing challenges for residents and operators. PCAPS focuses on enhancing forecast actionability, impact, and fidelity through a multifaceted approach of user engagement, model and service improvements, and impact studies. Key outcomes will include support for improved predictions of small-scale processes, enhanced understanding of observing systems and of the utility of Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) applications, contributions toward the development of a tiered surface observing network, and strengthened cooperation between users, operational centres, and researchers. PCAPS explores approaches to improve forecasts for sea ice, surface wind, visibility, and other key variables, which are essential for developing salient forecasting services that can enhance operational and environmental safety in extreme polar environments. Through collaborations between social and physical scientists, PCAPS also assesses decision-making, risk perceptions, and interactions between forecasters, service providers, and users, including Indigenous communities, and considers political, legal, and economic implications of information delivery. PCAPS is expected to inform WMO’s contribution to the fifth International Polar Year (2032-2033), support WMO Strategic Objectives, and build upon previous initiatives such as the Polar Prediction Project. 

Abstract The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.