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Abstract Understanding and attributing changes to water quality is essential to the study and management of coastal ecosystems and the ecological functions they sustain (e.g., primary productivity, predation, and submerged aquatic vegetation growth). However, describing patterns of water clarity—a key aspect of water quality—over meaningful scales in space and time is challenged by high spatial and temporal variability due to natural and anthropogenic processes. Regionally tuned satellite algorithms can provide a more complete understanding of coastal water clarity changes and drivers. In this study, we used open‐access satellite data and low‐cost in situ methods to improve estimates of water clarity in an optically complex coastal water body. Specifically, we created a remote sensing water clarity product by compiling Landsat‐8 and Sentinel‐2 reflectance data with long‐term Secchi depth measurements at 12 sites over 8 years in a shallow turbid coastal lagoon system in Virginia, USA. Our satellite‐based model explained ∼33% of the variation in in situ water clarity. Our approach increases the spatiotemporal coverage of in situ water clarity data and improves estimates from bio‐optical algorithms that overpredicted water clarity. This could lead to a better understanding of water clarity changes and drivers to better predict how water quality will change in the future. 

Abstract Spatial synchrony may be tail‐dependent, that is, stronger when populations are abundant than scarce, or vice‐versa. Here, ‘tail‐dependent’ follows from distributions having a lower tail consisting of relatively low values and an upper tail of relatively high values. We present a general theory of how the distribution and correlation structure of an environmental driver translates into tail‐dependent spatial synchrony through a non‐linear response, and examine empirical evidence for theoretical predictions in giant kelp along the California coastline. In sheltered areas, kelp declines synchronously (lower‐tail dependence) when waves are relatively intense, because waves below a certain height do little damage to kelp. Conversely, in exposed areas, kelp is synchronised primarily by periods of calmness that cause shared recovery (upper‐tail dependence). We find evidence for geographies of tail dependence in synchrony, which helps structure regional population resilience: areas where population declines are asynchronous may be more resilient to disturbance because remnant populations facilitate reestablishment. 

Abstract Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability. 

Abstract The relationship between biodiversity and stability, or its inverse, temporal variability, is multidimensional and complex. Temporal variability in aggregate properties, like total biomass or abundance, is typically lower in communities with higher species diversity (i.e., the diversity–stability relationship [DSR]). At broader spatial extents, regional‐scale aggregate variability is also lower with higher regional diversity (in plant systems) and with lower spatial synchrony. However, focusing exclusively on aggregate properties of communities may overlook potentially destabilizing compositional shifts. It is not yet clear how diversity is related to different components of variability across spatial scales, nor whether regional DSRs emerge across a broad range of organisms and ecosystem types. To test these questions, we compiled a large collection of long‐term metacommunity data spanning a wide range of taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, fish, plants, invertebrates) and ecosystem types (e.g., deserts, forests, oceans). We applied a newly developed quantitative framework for jointly analyzing aggregate and compositional variability across scales. We quantified DSRs for composition and aggregate variability in local communities and metacommunities. At the local scale, more diverse communities were less variable, but this effect was stronger for aggregate than compositional properties. We found no stabilizing effect of γ‐diversity on metacommunity variability, but β‐diversity played a strong role in reducing compositional spatial synchrony, which reduced regional variability. Spatial synchrony differed among taxa, suggesting differences in stabilization by spatial processes. However, metacommunity variability was more strongly driven by local variability than by spatial synchrony. Across a broader range of taxa, our results suggest that high γ‐diversity does not consistently stabilize aggregate properties at regional scales without sufficient spatial β‐diversity to reduce spatial synchrony. 

Abstract Understanding the mechanisms governing ecological stability—why a property such as primary productivity is stable in some communities and variable in others—has long been a focus of ecology. Compensatory dynamics, in which anti‐synchronous fluctuations between populations buffer against fluctuations at the community level, are a key theoretical mechanism of stability. Classically, compensatory dynamics have been quantified using a variance ratio approach that compares the ratio between community variance and aggregate population variance, such that a lower ratio indicates compensation and a higher ratio indicates synchrony among species fluctuations. However, population dynamics may be influenced by different drivers that operate on different timescales, and evidence from aquatic systems indicates that communities can be compensatory on some timescales and synchronous on others. The variance ratio and related metrics cannot reflect this timescale specificity, yet have remained popular, especially in terrestrial systems. Here, we develop a timescale‐specific variance ratio approach that formally decomposes the classical variance ratio according to the timescales of distinct contributions. The approach is implemented in a new R package, called tsvr, that accompanies this paper. We apply our approach to a long‐term, multisite grassland community dataset. Our approach demonstrates that the degree of compensation vs. synchrony in community dynamics can vary by timescale. Across sites, population variability was typically greater over longer compared to shorter timescales. At some sites, minimal timescale specificity in compensatory dynamics translated this pattern of population variability into a similar pattern of greater community variability on longer compared to shorter timescales. But at other sites, differentially stronger compensatory dynamics at longer compared to shorter timescales produced lower‐than‐expected community variability on longer timescales. Within every site, there were plots that exhibited shifts in the strength of compensation between timescales. Our results highlight that compensatory vs. synchronous dynamics are intrinsically timescale‐dependent concepts, and our timescale‐specific variance ratio provides a metric to quantify timescale specificity and relate it back to the classic variance ratio. 

Abstract Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation‐funded Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long‐term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50–100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the “connectivity” theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi‐scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land‐use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long‐term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long‐term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies.