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Ecological restoration outcomes are highly variable, undermining efforts to recover biodiversity and ecosystem functions. One poorly understood source of variability is ‘year effects’—interannual variation in environmental conditions during the first year of restoration that alter successional trajectories of plant communities.

Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning depend on the processes structuring community assembly. However, predicting biodiversity‐ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships based on community assembly remains challenging because assembly outcomes are often contingent on history and the consequences of history for ecosystem functions are poorly understood. In a grassland restoration experiment, we isolated the role of history for the relationships between plant biodiversity and multiple ecosystem functions by initiating assembly in three different years, while controlling for all other aspects of community assembly. We found that two aspects of assembly history—establishment year and succession—altered species and trait community trajectories, which in turn altered net primary productivity, decomposition rates, and floral resources. Moreover, history altered BEF relationships (which ranged from positive to negative), both within and across functions, by modifying the causal pathways linking species identity, traits, diversity, and ecosystem functions. Our results show that the interplay of deterministic succession and environmental stochasticity during establishment mediate historical contingencies that cause variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions, even under otherwise identical assembly conditions. An explicit attention to history is needed to understand why biodiversity‐ecosystem function relationships vary in natural ecosystems: a critical question at the intersection of fundamental theory and applications to environmental change biology and ecosystem restoration.

Recovering biodiversity is a common goal of restoration, yet outcomes for animal communities are highly variable. A major reason for this variability may be that active restoration efforts typically target plant communities, with the assumption that animal communities will passively recover in turn. However, this assumption remains largely unvalidated experimentally making it unclear how plant‐focused restoration strategies influence animal communities. We evaluated how the diversity of seed mixes used to restore tallgrass prairies (a common plant‐focused technique) influenced the recovery of ant community diversity and composition. Our study took place within a large‐scale restoration experiment in southwest Michigan, where 12 former agricultural fields are being restored to tallgrass prairie by sowing seeds of prairie plant species native to our region. Half of each field was seeded with 12 prairie species and the other half with 72 prairie species. Sites restored with high diversity seed mixes increased plant species richness, but did not consistently influence ant richness or community composition. Instead, ant species richness and composition were related to an interaction between realized plant species richness (which was only partly structured by seeding treatments) and environmental structure. Specifically, ant richness increased more with higher realized plant richness when vegetation cover was lower and soil‐surface temperatures were higher. Our findings illustrate how plant and animal communities can respond differently to plant‐focused restoration efforts. Despite this, plant community restoration can structure animal community responses, in concert with environmental factors. Layering additional restoration strategies onto existing plant‐focused approaches may further benefit biodiversity across taxa.

Restoration outcomes are notoriously unpredictable and this challenges the capacity to reliably meet goals. To harness ecological restoration's full potential, significant advances to predictive capacity must be made in restoration ecology. We outline a process for predicting restoration outcomes, based on the model of iterative forecasting. We then describe six challenges that impede predictive capabilities in restoration and, for each, an agenda for overcoming the challenge. Key challenges include the lack of clear goals, insufficient knowledge of why restoration outcomes vary, difficulty quantifying known drivers of variation prior to initiation of restoration projects, model uncertainty, the need to scale up local understanding to guide large‐scale restoration efforts, and temporally variable conditions that hinder long‐term forecast accuracy. Meeting these challenges will require research to resolve key drivers of variation in restoration outcomes; however, there is also a critical need to begin forecasting efforts in restoration ecology immediately. Although early efforts may be of limited practical utility, iterating between model development and evaluation will resolve data needs, minimize uncertainty, and lead to predictions that practitioners can confidently embrace. In turn, a robust predictive capacity will help to reliably meet goals, enhance cost‐effectiveness, and guide policy decisions to help see out the promise of the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

The species pool concept has advanced our understanding for how biodiversity is coupled at local and regional scales. However, it remains unclear how species pool size, the number of species available to disperse to a site, influences community assembly across spatial scales. We provide one of the first studies that assesses diversity across scales after experimentally assembling grassland communities from species pools of different sizes. We show that species pool size causes scale‐dependent effects on diversity in grasslands undergoing restoration by altering the shape of the species–area relationship (SAR). Specifically, larger species pools increased the slope of the SAR, but not the intercept, suggesting that dispersal from a larger pool causes species to be more spatially aggregated. This increased aggregation appears to be caused by sampling effects due to fewer individuals arriving per species, rather than stronger species sorting across variation in soil moisture. These scale‐dependent effects suggest that studies evaluating species pools at a single, small scale may underestimate their effects, thereby contributing to uncertainty about the importance of regional processes for community assembly and their consequences for ecological restoration.

The relationship between biodiversity and stability, or its inverse, temporal variability, is multidimensional and complex. Temporal variability in aggregate properties, like total biomass or abundance, is typically lower in communities with higher species diversity (i.e., the diversity–stability relationship [DSR]). At broader spatial extents, regional‐scale aggregate variability is also lower with higher regional diversity (in plant systems) and with lower spatial synchrony. However, focusing exclusively on aggregate properties of communities may overlook potentially destabilizing compositional shifts. It is not yet clear how diversity is related to different components of variability across spatial scales, nor whether regional DSRs emerge across a broad range of organisms and ecosystem types. To test these questions, we compiled a large collection of long‐term metacommunity data spanning a wide range of taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, fish, plants, invertebrates) and ecosystem types (e.g., deserts, forests, oceans). We applied a newly developed quantitative framework for jointly analyzing aggregate and compositional variability across scales. We quantified DSRs for composition and aggregate variability in local communities and metacommunities. At the local scale, more diverse communities were less variable, but this effect was stronger for aggregate than compositional properties. We found no stabilizing effect of γ‐diversity on metacommunity variability, but β‐diversity played a strong role in reducing compositional spatial synchrony, which reduced regional variability. Spatial synchrony differed among taxa, suggesting differences in stabilization by spatial processes. However, metacommunity variability was more strongly driven by local variability than by spatial synchrony. Across a broader range of taxa, our results suggest that high γ‐diversity does not consistently stabilize aggregate properties at regional scales without sufficient spatial β‐diversity to reduce spatial synchrony.