Search for: All records

Rapid advancement in inverse modeling methods have brought into light their susceptibility to imperfect data. This has made it imperative to obtain more explainable and trustworthy estimates from these models. In hydrology, basin characteristics can be noisy or missing, impacting streamflow prediction. We propose a probabilistic inverse model framework that can reconstruct robust hydrology basin characteristics from dynamic input weather driver and streamflow response data. We address two aspects of building more explainable inverse models, uncertainty estimation (uncertainty due to imperfect data and imperfect model) and robustness. This can help improve the trust of water managers, handling of noisy data and reduce costs. We also propose an uncertainty based loss regularization that offers removal of 17% of temporal artifacts in reconstructions, 36% reduction in uncertainty and 4% higher coverage rate for basin characteristics. The forward model performance (streamflow estimation) is also improved by 6% using these uncertainty learning based reconstructions. 

Abstract While basaltic volcanism is dominant during rifting and continental breakup, felsic magmatism may be a significant component of some rift margins. During International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 396 on the continental margin of Norway, a graphite‐garnet‐cordierite bearing dacitic unit (the Mimir dacite) was recovered in two holes within early Eocene sediments on Mimir High (Site U1570), a marginal high on the Vøring Transform Margin. Here, we present a comprehensive textural, petrological, and geochemical study of the Mimir dacite in order to assess its origin and discuss the geodynamic implications. The major mineral phases (garnet, cordierite, quartz, plagioclase, alkali feldspar) are hosted in a fresh rhyolitic, vesicular, glassy matrix that is locally mingled with sediments. The major element chemistry of garnet and cordierite, the presence of zircon inclusions with inherited cores, and thermobarometric calculations all support an upper crustal metapelitic origin. While most magma‐rich margin models favor crustal anatexis in the lower crust, thermobarometric calculations performed here show that the Mimir dacite was produced at upper‐crustal depths (<5 kbar, 18 km depth) and high temperature (750–800°C) with up to 3 wt% water content. In situ U‐Pb analyses on zircon inclusions give a magmatic crystallization age of 54.6 ± 1.1 Ma, consistent with emplacement that post‐dates the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our results suggest that the opening of the Northeast Atlantic was associated with a phase of low‐pressure, high‐temperature crustal anatexis preceding the main phase of magmatism. 

In the context of supervised parametric models, we introduce the concept of e-values. An e-value is a scalar quantity that represents the proximity of the sampling distribution of parameter estimates in a model trained on a subset of features to that of the model trained on all features (i.e. the full model). Under general conditions, a rank ordering of e-values separates models that contain all essential features from those that do not. The e-values are applicable to a wide range of parametric models. We use data depths and a fast resampling-based algorithm to implement a feature selection procedure using e-values, providing consistency results. For a p-dimensional feature space, this procedure requires fitting only the full model and evaluating p + 1 models, as opposed to the traditional requirement of fitting and evaluating 2^p models. Through experiments across several model settings and synthetic and real datasets, we establish that the e-values method as a promising general alternative to existing model-specific methods of feature selection 

ABSTRACT Stringent observational constraints on the subgalactic matter power spectrum would allow one to distinguish between the concordance ΛCDM and the various alternative dark-matter models that predict significantly different properties of mass structure in galactic haloes. Galaxy–galaxy strong gravitational lensing provides a unique opportunity to probe the subgalactic mass structure in lens galaxies beyond the Local Group. Here, we demonstrate the first application of a novel methodology to observationally constrain the subgalactic matter power spectrum in the inner regions of massive elliptical lens galaxies on 1–10 kpc scales from the power spectrum of surface-brightness anomalies in highly magnified galaxy-scale Einstein rings and gravitational arcs. The pilot application of our approach to Hubble Space Telescope (HST/WFC3/F390W) observations of the SLACS lens system SDSS J0252+0039 allows us to place the following observational constraints (at the 99 per cent confidence level) on the dimensionless convergence power spectrum $$\Delta ^{2}_{\delta \kappa }$$ and the standard deviation in the aperture mass σAM: $$\Delta ^{2}_{\delta \kappa }\lt 1$$ (σAM < 0.8 × 108 M⊙) on 0.5-kpc scale, $$\Delta ^{2}_{\delta \kappa }\lt 0.1$$ (σAM < 1 × 108 M⊙) on 1-kpc scale and $$\Delta ^{2}_{\delta \kappa }\lt 0.01$$ (σAM < 3 × 108 M⊙) on 3-kpc scale. These first upper-limit constraints still considerably exceed the estimated effect of CDM subhaloes. However, future analysis of a larger sample of galaxy–galaxy strong lens systems can substantially narrow down these limits and possibly rule out dark-matter models that predict a significantly higher level of density fluctuations on the critical subgalactic scales. 

Abstract The Green Bank 820 MHz pulsar survey covers ≃173 deg²in the Cygnus X region of the Galaxy, centered onl= 84.°5 andb= 1.°5. Significant star formation is present in this region, and lines of sight pass through three arms of the Galaxy (Orion–Cygnus, Perseus, and an outer arm). Using the Green Bank Telescope, we recorded 200 MHz of bandwidth for 4.5 minutes at 81.92μs resolution for each of 3457 observed survey pointings during 2016 and 2017, covering about two-thirds of the total area. We searched these data for pulsars and report the discovery of six new pulsars—PSRs J2016+3820, J2016+4231, J2019+3810, J2035+3538, J2035+3655, and J2041+4551—and the codiscovery of PSR J2057+4701. PSR J2035+3655 is in a short (4.5 hr) binary orbit; we report the full binary solution and weakly constrain the mass of the pulsar via a marginal (2σ) detection of the Shapiro delay. We also searched the survey data for known pulsars to estimate the survey’s sensitivity and measured 820 MHz pulse widths and flux density for 20 detected sources. For sources that were also detected in the Green Bank North Celestial Cap survey at 350 MHz, we measure scattering parameters and compare to expectations for the region. With these results, we revisit the population estimates that motivated this survey and consider the impact of the survey’s yield on their underlying models. We note an apparent underestimate in dispersion measure predictions from typical Galactic electron density models in the survey region, and discuss future observation strategies.