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A better understanding of various patterns in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in different parts of the world is crucial to its prevention and control. Motivated by the previously developed Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, this paper proposes a new stochastic dynamic model to depict the evolution of COVID-19. The model allows spatial and temporal heterogeneity of transmission parameters and involves transportation between regions. Based on the proposed model, this paper also designs a two-step procedure for parameter inference, which utilizes the correlation between regions through a prior distribution that imposes graph Laplacian regularization on transmission parameters. Experiments on simulated data and real-world data in China and Europe indicate that the proposed model achieves higher accuracy in predicting the newly confirmed cases than baseline models.

Encoding the scale information explicitly into the representation learned by a convolutional neural network (CNN) is beneficial for many computer vision tasks especially when dealing with multiscale inputs. We study, in this paper, a scaling-translation-equivariant (ST-equivariant) CNN with joint convolutions across the space and the scaling group, which is shown to be both sufficient and necessary to achieve equivariance for the regular representation of the scaling-translation group ST. To reduce the model complexity and computational burden, we decompose the convolutional filters under two pre-fixed separable bases and truncate the expansion to low-frequency components. A further benefit of the truncated filter expansion is the improved deformation robustness of the equivariant representation, a property which is theoretically analyzed and empirically verified. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed scaling-translation-equivariant network with decomposed convolutional filters (ScDCFNet) achieves significantly improved performance in multiscale image classification and better interpretability than regular CNNs at a reduced model size.

Encoding the scale information explicitly into the representation learned by a convolutional neural network (CNN) is beneficial for many computer vision tasks especially when dealing with multiscale inputs. We study, in this paper, a scaling-translation-equivariant (ST-equivariant) CNN with joint convolutions across the space and the scaling group, which is shown to be both sufficient and necessary to achieve equivariance for the regular representation of the scaling-translation group ST. To reduce the model complexity and computational burden, we decompose the convolutional filters under two pre-fixed separable bases and truncate the expansion to low-frequency components. A further benefit of the truncated filter expansion is the improved deformation robustness of the equivariant representation, a property which is theoretically analyzed and empirically verified. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed scaling-translation-equivariant network with decomposed convolutional filters (ScDCFNet) achieves significantly improved performance in multiscale image classification and better interpretability than regular CNNs at a reduced model size.