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We model the electron density in the topside of the ionosphere with an improved machine learning (ML) model and compare it to existing empirical models, specifically the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and the Empirical‐Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E‐CHAIM). In prior work, an artificial neural network (NN) was developed and trained on two solar cycles worth of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data (113 satellite‐years), along with global drivers and indices to predict topside electron density. In this paper, we highlight improvements made to this NN, and present a detailed comparison of the new model to E‐CHAIM and IRI as a function of location, geomagnetic condition, time of year, and solar local time. We discuss precision and accuracy metrics to better understand model strengths and weaknesses. The updated neural network shows improved mid‐latitude performance with absolute errors lower than the IRI by 2.5 × 10⁹to 2.5 × 10¹⁰e⁻/m³, modestly improved performance in disturbed geomagnetic conditions with absolute errors reduced by about 2.5 × 10⁹ e⁻/m³at high Kp compared to the IRI, and high Kp percentage errors reduced by >50% when compared to E‐CHAIM.

 

In this work, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are developed to detect and characterize sporadic E (E_s), demonstrating an improvement over current methods. This includes a binary classification model to determine ifE_sis present, followed by a regression model to estimate theE_sordinary mode critical frequency (foEs), a proxy for the intensity, along with the height at which theE_slayer occurs (hEs). Signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) and excess phase profiles from six Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) missions during the years 2008–2022 are used as the inputs of the model. Intensity (foEs) and the height (hEs) values are obtained from the global network of ground‐based Digisonde ionosondes and are used as the “ground truth,” or target variables, during training. After corresponding the two data sets, a total of 36,521 samples are available for training and testing the models. The foEs CNN binary classification model achieved an accuracy of 74% and F1‐score of 0.70. Mean absolute errors (MAE) of 0.63 MHz and 5.81 km along with root‐mean squared errors (RMSE) of 0.95 MHz and 7.89 km were attained for estimating foEs and hEs, respectively, when it was known thatE_swas present. When combining the classification and regression models together for use in practical applications where it is unknown ifE_sis present, an foEs MAE and RMSE of 0.97 and 1.65 MHz, respectively, were realized. We implemented three other techniques for sporadic E characterization, and found that the CNN model appears to perform better.

 

Gigantic jets are a type of transient luminous event (TLE, Pasko 2010, doi: 10.1029/2009JA014860) that escape the cloud top of a thunderstorm and propagate up to the lower ionosphere (80-100 km altitude), transferring tens to hundreds of Coulombs of charge. Due to rarity of observations, it is still not understood how they affect the lower ionosphere and what storm systems produce them. In this presentation we will provide an overview and present preliminary results from a multi-institutional collaborative project, which seeks to detect gigantic jets over hemispheric scales using a combination of orbital and ground-based sensors and machine learning. Our pipeline has the potential to detect significantly more gigantic jets (thousands) than current methods, which relies on using ground-based cameras. We will build a large database of gigantic jet detections, and correlate the events with a Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing network (Cohen et al. 2009, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2009.2028334) to understand how they perturb the lower ionosphere – in addition to other meteorological datasets. Our detection methodology primarily uses the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which is a staring optical imager in geostationary orbit that detects the 777.4 nm (OI) triplet commonly emitted by lightning (Goodman et al. 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.01.006). Gigantic jets have been shown to have unique signatures in the GLM data from past studies (Boggs et al. 2019, doi: 10.1029/2019GL082278; Boggs et al. 2022, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abl8731). Thus far, we have built a preliminary, supervised machine learning model that detects potential gigantic jets using GLM, and begun development on a series of vetting techniques to confirm the detections as real gigantic jets. The vetting techniques use a combination of low frequency (LF) and extremely low frequency (ELF) sferic data, in combination with stereo GLM measurements that provide optical source altitude. In addition, we will soon be able to calculate optical stereo sources with GLM on GOES-16 and the newly launched Lightning Imager on EUMETSAT, significantly expanding the stereo region of detection. When our detection methodology grows in maturity, we will deploy it to all past GLM data (2018-present) and share the database publicly, allowing other researchers to use this data for their own research.