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  1. Abstract

    Natural and social systems worldwide are impacted by climate modes such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), making it imperative to understand their sensitivity to climate change. Paleoclimate studies extend the observational climate baseline, and speleothem records (δ18Ospel) are a common data source. However, relationships between δ18Ospeland climate modes are uncertain; climate models provide a way to test the strength and stability of these relationships. Here, we use the isotope‐enabled Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble combined with a forward proxy model to delineate the global expression of modal variability in “pseudo‐stalagmite” (δ18Ospel) records worldwide. The modeled δ18Ospelspatially correlates with modal signatures. However, substantial changes in modal variance only modestly affect individual δ18Ospelvariance. A network of δ18Ospelrecords, particularly one that straddles the Pacific, significantly improves the reconstructability of ENSO variance.

  2. Abstract

    The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

  3. A bstract The first measurement of the top quark pair ( $$ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}} $$ t t ¯ ) production cross section in proton-proton collisions at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 . 6 TeV is presented. Data recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in Summer 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1 . 21 fb − 1 , are analyzed. Events are selected with one or two charged leptons (electrons or muons) and additional jets. A maximum likelihood fit is performed in event categories defined by the number and flavors of the leptons, the number of jets, and the number of jets identified as originating from b quarks. An inclusive $$ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}} $$ t t ¯ production cross section of 881 ± 23 (stat + syst) ± 20 (lumi) pb is measured, in agreement with the standard model prediction of $$ {924}_{-40}^{+32} $$ 924 − 40 + 32 pb.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2024
  4. A bstract A search for physics beyond the standard model (SM) in the final state with a hadronically decaying tau lepton and a neutrino is presented. This analysis is based on data recorded by the CMS experiment from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the LHC, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . The transverse mass spectrum is analyzed for the presence of new physics. No significant deviation from the SM prediction is observed. Limits are set on the production cross section of a W′ boson decaying into a tau lepton and a neutrino. Lower limits are set on the mass of the sequential SM-like heavy charged vector boson and the mass of a quantum black hole. Upper limits are placed on the couplings of a new boson to the SM fermions. Constraints are put on a nonuniversal gauge interaction model and an effective field theory model. For the first time, upper limits on the cross section of t -channel leptoquark (LQ) exchange are presented. These limits are translated into exclusion limits on the LQ mass and on its coupling in the t -channel. The sensitivity of this analysis extends intomore »the parameter space of LQ models that attempt to explain the anomalies observed in B meson decays. The limits presented for the various interpretations are the most stringent to date. Additionally, a model-independent limit is provided.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2024
  5. A bstract A search for the electroweak production of a vector-like quark T′, decaying to a top quark and a Higgs boson is presented. The search is based on a sample of proton-proton collision events recorded at the LHC at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . This is the first T′ search that exploits the Higgs boson decay to a pair of photons. For narrow isospin singlet T′ states with masses up to 1.1 TeV, the excellent diphoton invariant mass resolution of 1–2% results in an increased sensitivity compared to previous searches based on the same production mechanism. The electroweak production of a T′ quark with mass up to 960 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level, assuming a coupling strength κ T = 0 . 25 and a relative decay width Γ /M T′ < 5%.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2024
  6. Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2024
  7. Abstract The production of Z bosons associated with jets is measured in $$\text {p}\text {p}$$ pp collisions at $$\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $$ s = 13 Te V with data recorded with the CMS experiment at the LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.3 $$\,\text {fb}^{-1}$$ fb - 1 . The multiplicity of jets with transverse momentum $$p_{\textrm{T}} > 30\,\text {Ge}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $$ p T > 30 Ge V is measured for different regions of the Z boson’s $$p_{\textrm{T}} (\text {Z })$$ p T ( Z ) , from lower than 10 $$\,\text {Ge}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$$ Ge V to higher than 100 $$\,\text {Ge}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$$ Ge V . The azimuthal correlation $$\varDelta \phi $$ Δ ϕ between the Z boson and the leading jet, as well as the correlations between the two leading jets are measured in three regions of $$p_{\textrm{T}} (\text {Z })$$ p T ( Z ) . The measurements are compared with several predictions at leading and next-to-leading orders, interfaced with parton showers. Predictions based on transverse-momentum dependent parton distributions and corresponding parton showers give a good description of the measurement in the regions where multiple parton interactions and higher jet multiplicities are not important. The effects ofmore »multiple parton interactions are shown to be important to correctly describe the measured spectra in the low $$p_{\textrm{T}} (\text {Z })$$ p T ( Z ) regions.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2024
  8. A bstract Measurements of the inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections for the Higgs boson production in the H → ZZ → 4 ℓ ( ℓ = e , μ ) decay channel are presented. The results are obtained from the analysis of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . The measured inclusive fiducial cross section is 2 . 73 ± 0 . 26 fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 2 . 86 ± 0 . 1 fb. Differential cross sections are measured as a function of several kinematic observables sensitive to the Higgs boson production and decay to four leptons. A set of double-differential measurements is also performed, yielding a comprehensive characterization of the four leptons final state. Constraints on the Higgs boson trilinear coupling and on the bottom and charm quark coupling modifiers are derived from its transverse momentum distribution. All results are consistent with theoretical predictions from the standard model.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2024
  9. A bstract A search is performed for exclusive high-mass γγ → WW and γγ → ZZ production in proton-proton collisions using intact forward protons reconstructed in near-beam detectors, with both weak bosons decaying into boosted and merged jets. The analysis is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS and TOTEM experiments at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 100 fb − 1 . No excess above the standard model background prediction is observed, and upper limits are set on the pp → pWWp and pp → pZZp cross sections in a fiducial region defined by the diboson invariant mass m (VV) > 1 TeV (with V = W , Z) and proton fractional momentum loss 0 . 04 < ξ < 0 . 20. The results are interpreted as new limits on dimension-6 and dimension-8 anomalous quartic gauge couplings.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2024
  10. Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2024