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The intensity of explosive volcanic eruptions is correlated with the amplitude of eruption tremor, a ubiquitously observed seismic signal during eruptions. Here we expand upon a recently introduced theoretical model that attributes eruption tremor to particle impacts and dynamic pressure changes in the turbulent flow above fragmentation (Gestrich et al., 2020). We replace their point source model with Rayleigh wave Green's functions with full Green's functions and account for depth variation of input fields using conduit flow models. The latter self-consistently capture covariation of input fields like particle velocity, particle volume fraction, and density. Body wave contributions become significant above 2-3 Hz, bringing the power spectral density (PSD) closer to observations. Conditions at the vent are not representative of flow throughout the tremor source region and using these values overestimates tremor amplitude. Particle size and its depth distribution alter the PSD and where dominant source contributions arise within the conduit. Solutions with decreasing mass eruption rate, representing a waning eruption, reveal a shift in the dominant tremor contribution from turbulence to particle impacts. Our work demonstrates the ability to integrate conduit flow modeling with volcano seismology studies of eruption tremor, providing an opportunity to link observations to eruptive processes. 

Abstract Fragmentation plays a critical role in eruption explosivity by influencing the eruptive jet and plume dynamics that may initiate hazards such as pyroclastic flows. The mechanics and progression of fragmentation during an eruption are challenging to constrain observationally, limiting our understanding of this important process. In this work, we explore seismic radiation associated with unsteady fragmentation. Seismic force and moment tensor fluctuations from unsteady fragmentation arise from fluctuations in fragmentation depth and wall shear stress (e.g., from viscosity variations). We use unsteady conduit flow models to simulate perturbations to a steady‐state eruption from injections of heterogeneous magma (specifically, variable magma viscosity due to crystal volume fraction variations). Changes in wall shear stress and pressure determine the seismic force and moment histories, which are used to calculate synthetic seismograms. We consider three heterogeneity profiles: Gaussian pulse, sinusoidal, and stochastic. Fragmentation of a high‐crystallinity Gaussian pulse produces a distinct very‐long‐period seismic signature and associated reduction in mass eruption rate, suggesting joint use of seismic, infrasound, and plume monitoring data to identify this process. Simulations of sinusoidal injections quantify the relation between the frequency or length scale of heterogeneities passing through fragmentation and spectral peaks in seismograms, with velocity seismogram amplitudes increasing with frequency. Stochastic composition variations produce stochastic seismic signals similar to observed eruption tremor, though computational limitations restrict our study to frequencies less than 0.25 Hz. We suggest that stochastic fragmentation fluctuations could be a plausible eruption tremor source. 

Abstract Explosive volcanic eruptions radiate seismic waves as a consequence of pressure and shear traction changes within the conduit/chamber system. Kinematic source inversions utilize these waves to determine equivalent seismic force and moment tensor sources, but relation to eruptive processes is often ambiguous and nonunique. In this work, we provide an alternative, forward modeling approach to calculate moment tensor and force equivalents of a model of eruptive conduit flow and chamber depressurization. We explain the equivalence of two seismic force descriptions, the first in terms of traction changes on conduit/chamber walls, and the second in terms of changes in magma momentum, weight, and momentum transfer to the atmosphere. Eruption onset is marked by a downward seismic force, associated with loss of restraining shear tractions from fragmentation. This is followed by a much larger upward seismic force from upward drag of ascending magma and reduction of magma weight remaining in the conduit/chamber system. The static force is upward, arising from weight reduction. We calculate synthetic seismograms to examine the expression of eruptive processes at different receiver distances. Filtering these synthetics to the frequency band typically resolved by broadband seismometers produces waveforms similar to very long period seismic events observed in strombolian and vulcanian eruptions. However, filtering heavily distorts waveforms, accentuating processes in early, unsteady parts of eruptions and eliminating information about longer (ultra long period time scale depressurization and weight changes that dominate unfiltered seismograms. Our workflow can be utilized to directly and quantitatively connect eruption models with seismic observations. 

Abstract Inflationary deformation and very long period (VLP) earthquakes frequently accompany basaltic caldera collapses, yet current interpretations do not reflect physically consistent mechanisms. We present a lumped parameter model accounting for caldera block/magma momentum change, magma chamber pressurization, and ring fault (assumed vertical) shear stress drop. Pressurization of the underlying magma chamber is represented by a tri‐axial expansion source, and the combined caldera block/magma momentum change by a vertical single force. The model is applied to Kīlauea 2018 caldera collapse events, accurately predicting near field static/dynamic ground motions. In addition to the tri‐axial expansion source, the single force contributes significantly to the VLP waveforms. For an average collapse event with fully developed ring fault, Bayesian inversion constrains ring fault stress drop to ∼0.4 MPa and the pressure increase to ∼1.9 MPa. That the predictions fit both geodetic and seismic observations confirms that the model captures the dominant caldera collapse mechanisms.