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Abstract. Predictions of future sea-level change and ice-sheet stability rely on accurate reconstructions of sea levels for past warm intervals, such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma). The magnitude of MPWP glacial cycles and the relative contribution of meltwater sources remain uncertain. We explore this issue by modeling processes of glacial isostatic adjustment for a wide range of possible MPWP ice-sheet melt zones, including North America, Greenland, Eurasia, and West Antarctica, as well as the Wilkes Basin, the Aurora Basin, and the embayment of Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. As a case study, we use a series of ice histories together with a suite of viscoelastic Earth models to predict global changes in sea level from the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 glacial to the MIS KM3 interglacial. At the Whanganui Basin (New Zealand), a location with stratigraphic constraints on Pliocene glacial–interglacial sea-level amplitude, the calculated local-sea-level (LSL) rise is on average ∼ 15 % lower than the associated change in the global mean sea level (GMSL) in the ice-sheet scenarios explored here. In contrast, the calculated LSL rise over the deglaciation from MIS M2 to MIS KM3 at Enewetak Atoll is systematically larger than the GMSL change by 10 %. While no single LSL observation (field site) can provide a unique constraint on the sources of ice melt observed during this period, combinations of observations have the potential to yield a stronger constraint on GMSL change and to narrow the list of possible sources.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 10, 2026
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While it remains uncertain whether excursions in the stable carbon isotopic composition of Ediacaran marine carbonate (δ13Ccarb) represent globally synchronous events (or a direct measure of ocean carbon cycling), the absence of widely distributed and readily preservable fauna, and the presence of several iconic carbon isotope excursions (CIEs), has sustained δ13Ccarb correlation as the primary means to establish relative time relationships for Ediacaran successions. Here we present an Ediacaran global δ13Ccarb composite built with a dynamic time warping (DTW) time-normalization algorithm that generates libraries of least-squares alignments between chemostratigraphic records of unequal length and distinct sediment accumulation rates. When developing a δ13Ccarb composite for each of 16 globally distributed Ediacaran paleo-depositional regions, we selected high Pearson r alignments that conformed with published geological guidance about the correlation of constituent sections. When applying DTW to align these regional algorithmic composites into one global δ13Ccarb stack, we selected alignments that allied the excursions that field workers have established (or speculated) are the Marinoan cap carbonate excursion, the Shuram excursion, and/or the basal Cambrian excursion. There are strengths and weaknesses to making explicit the temporal relationships (point-to-point correspondences) often left implicit in visual correlation. One strength is to extrapolate depositional ages by means of isotopic correlation, and here we explored this with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo age model that predicts a median age, and uncertainty, for every carbonate stratum in the global Ediacaran δ13Ccarb composite. Yet, one must caution against a false accuracy that can arise from selecting one alignment among many possibilities––the likelihood that time-uncertain time series can be stretched and squeezed into one unequivocal alignment is low. Thus, while these alignments are grounded in the expert assessment of the field worker, this global Ediacaran δ13Ccarb–Bayesian age model should be viewed as a working hypothesis to enrich, but not arbitrate, discussions of the correlation, synchrony, and completeness of Ediacaran successions.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available September 15, 2025
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Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations using earth models that vary viscoelastic structure with depth alone cannot simultaneously fit geographic trends in the elevation of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5a relative sea level (RSL) indicators across continental North America and the Caribbean and yield conflicting estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL). We present simulations with a GIA model that incorporates three-dimensional (3-D) variation in North American viscoelastic earth structure constructed by combining high-resolution seismic tomographic imaging with a new method for mapping this imaging into lateral variations in lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity. We pair this earth model with a global ice history based on updated constraints on ice volume and geometry. The GIA prediction provides the first simultaneous reconciliation of MIS 5a North American and Caribbean RSL highstands and strengthens arguments that MIS 5a peak GMSL reached values close to that of the Last Interglacial. This result highlights the necessity of incorporating realistic 3-D earth structure into GIA predictions with continent-scale RSL data sets.more » « less
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Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) imparts geographic variability in the amplitude and timing of local sea-level (LSL) change arising from glacial-interglacial oscillations relative to a global mean signal (eustasy). We modeled how GIA manifests in the stratigraphic record across four shelf-perpendicular transects moving progressively more distal to the Quaternary North American ice complex, subject to varying amounts of GIA during glacial-interglacial cycles. Along each transect, we obtained LSL histories for nine sites between 1 m and 250 m water depth from the output of a gravitationally self-consistent GIA model run from marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 11 to the present. We paired each site’s unique LSL history with 50 identical annual sedimentation models to create a library of 400-k.y.-duration synthetic stratigraphic columns (each assuming no tectonics). Comparison of the suite of synthetic stratigraphic columns between transects for a given bathymetric depth reveals latitudinal differences in the stratigraphically determined number, magnitude, and age of glacial-interglacial cycles, as inferred from stratigraphic sequence count, apparent water-depth change, and age of preserved deglacial transgression. We conclude that, for many field locales, extraction of primary information about the number, scale, and duration of pre-Cenozoic glacial-interglacial cycles from continental shelf stratigraphic records near ice sheets demands a deconvolution of the GIA signal.more » « less
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A global database of marine isotope substage 5a and 5c marine terraces and paleoshoreline indicatorsAbstract. In this review we compile and document the elevation, indicative meaning, and chronology of marine isotope substage 5a and 5c sea level indicatorsfor 39 sites within three geographic regions: the North American Pacific coast, the North American Atlantic coast and the Caribbean, and theremaining globe. These relative sea level indicators, comprised of geomorphic indicators such as marine and coral reef terraces, eolianites, andsedimentary marine- and terrestrial-limiting facies, facilitate future investigation into marine isotope substage 5a and 5c interstadial paleo-sealevel reconstruction, glacial isostatic adjustment, and Quaternary tectonic deformation. The open-access database, presented in the format of theWorld Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) database, can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5021306 (Thompson and Creveling, 2021).more » « less
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Geodetic, seismic, and geological evidence indicates that West Antarctica is underlain by low-viscosity shallow mantle. Thus, as marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated during past interglacials, or will retreat in the future, exposed bedrock will rebound rapidly and flux meltwater out into the open ocean. Previous studies have suggested that this contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is small and occurs slowly. We challenge this notion using sea level predictions that incorporate both the outflux mechanism and complex three-dimensional viscoelastic mantle structure. In the case of the last interglacial, where the GMSL contribution from WAIS collapse is often cited as ~3 to 4 meters, the outflux mechanism contributes ~1 meter of additional GMSL change within ~1 thousand years of the collapse. Using a projection of future WAIS collapse, we also demonstrate that the outflux can substantially amplify GMSL rise estimates over the next century.more » « less
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SUMMARY We present and make publicly available a dynamic programming algorithm to simultaneously align the inclination and declination vector directions of sedimentary palaeomagnetic secular variation data. This algorithm generates a library of possible alignments through the systematic variation of assumptions about the relative accumulation rate and shared temporal overlap of two or more time-series. The palaeomagnetist can then evaluate this library of reproducible and objective alignments using available geological constraints, statistical methods and expert knowledge. We apply the algorithm to align previously (visually) correlated medium to high accumulation rate northern North Atlantic Holocene deposits (101–102 cm ka–1) with strong radiocarbon control. The algorithm generates plausible alignments that largely conform with radiocarbon and magnetic acquisition process uncertainty. These alignments illustrate the strengths and limitations of this numerical approach.more » « less