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Induced seismicity in Oklahoma and South Kansas has been widely attributed to wastewater disposal into the deep Arbuckle formation. However, the relative contributions of pore-pressure diffusion and poroelastic stress changes to earthquake triggering remain debated. In this study, we apply the Coulomb threshold rate-and-state seismicity forecasting model of Heimisson et al. (2022) to induced seismicity in the region from 2000 to 2024. Our model is informed by poroelastic stress changes resulting from wastewater injection between 1995 and 2024 and is benchmarked against existing seismicity forecast models. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the onset, peak, and decline of seismicity, demonstrating strong agreement with the observed earthquake activity in space and time. It provides robust constraints on permeability, yielding a range consistent with previously reported values. Based on the fit to the data, the model informed by poroelastic stress changes performs better. However, regardless of the assumed mechanism, both models yield similarly reliable seismicity forecasts, indicating that the choice of mechanism has a limited impact on forecasting performance. Finally, we estimate the probability of an >= 5 event occurring between 2021 and 2024 to range from 7% to 18% and conclude that seismic risk will remain elevated if wastewater injection volumes into the Arbuckle persist at similar levels in the coming years. 

Abstract Variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) redistribute heat and nutrients, causing pronounced anomalies of temperature and nutrient concentrations in the subsurface ocean. However, exactly how millennial‐scale deglacial AMOC variability influenced the subsurface is debated, and the role of other deglacial forcings of subsurface temperature change is unclear. Here, we present a new deglacial temperature reconstruction, which, with published records, helps assess competing hypotheses for deglacial warming in the upper tropical North Atlantic. Our record provides new evidence of regional subsurface warming in the western tropical North Atlantic within the core of modern Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), an early deglacial interval of iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic. Our results are consistent with model simulations that suggest subsurface heat accumulates in the northern high‐latitude convection regions and along the upper AMOC return path when the AMOC weakens, and with warming due to rising greenhouse gases. Warming of AAIW may have also contributed to warming in the tropics at modern AAIW depths during late HS1. Nutrient andreconstructions from the same site suggest a link between AMOC intensity and the northward extent of AAIW in the northern tropics across the deglaciation and on millennial time scales. However, the timing of the initial deglacial increase in AAIW to the northern tropics is ambiguous. Deglacial trends and variability ofin the upper North Atlantic have likely biased temperature reconstructions based on the elemental composition of calcitic benthic foraminifera.