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Abstract Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report thatLarix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (T_critof photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25^thpercentile ofLarix sibirica’s T_critby two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits. 

Abstract Recent climate extremes in Mongolia have ignited a renewed interest in understanding past climate variability over centennial and longer time scales across north-central Asia. Tree-ring width records have been extensively studied in Mongolia as proxies for climate reconstruction, however, the climate and environmental signals of tree-ring stable isotopes from this region need to be further explored. Here, we evaluated a 182-year record of tree-ring δ13C and δ18O from Siberian Pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) from a xeric site in central Mongolia (Khorgo Lava) to elucidate the environmental factors modulating these parameters. First, we analyzed the climate sensitivity of tree-ring δ13C and δ18O at Khorgo Lava for comparison with ring-width records, which have been instrumental in reconstructing hydroclimate in central Mongolia over two millennia. We also compared stable isotope records of trees with partial cambial dieback (‘strip-bark morphology’), a feature of long-lived conifers growing on resource-limited sites, and trees with a full cambium (‘whole-bark morphology’), to assess the inferred leaf-level physiological behavior of these trees. We found that interannual variability in tree-ring δ13C and δ18O reflected summer hydroclimatic variability, and captured recent, extreme drought conditions, thereby complementing ring-width records. The tree-ring δ18O records also had a spring temperature signal and thus expanded the window of climate information recorded by these trees. Over longer time scales, strip-bark trees had an increasing trend in ring-widths, δ13C (and intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) and δ18O, relative to whole-bark trees. Our results suggest that increases in iWUE at this site might be related to a combination of leaf-level physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, recent drought, and stem morphological changes. Our study underscores the potential of stable isotopes for broadening our understanding of past climate in north-central Asia. However, further studies are needed to understand how stem morphological changes might impact stable isotopic trends.