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Water column nutrient concentrations and autotrophy in oligotrophic ecosystems are sensitive to eutrophication and other long-term environmental changes and disturbances. Disturbance can be defined as an event or process that changes the structure and response of an ecosystem to other environmental drivers. The role disturbance plays in regulating ecosystem functions is challenging because the effect of the disturbance can vary in magnitude, duration, and extent spatially and temporally. We measured changes in total nitrogen (TN), dissolved inorganic nutrient (DIN), total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total organic carbon (TOC), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations throughout the Everglades, Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys. This region has been subjected to a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances including tropical storms, fires, eutrophication, and rapid increases in water levels from sea-level rise and freshwater restoration. We hypothesized that the rate of change in water quality would be greatest in the coastal ecotone where disturbance frequencies and marine P concentrations are highest, and in freshwater marshes closest to hydrologic changes from restoration. We applied trend analyses on multi-decadal data (1996–2019) collected from 461 locations distributed from inland freshwater Everglades (ridge and slough) to outer marine reefs along the Florida Keys, USA. Total Organic Carbon decreased throughout the study area and was the only parameter with a systematic trend throughout the study area. All other parameters had spatially heterogeneous patterns in long-term trends. Results indicate more variability across a large spatial and temporal extent associated with changes in biogeochemical indicators and water quality conditions. Chemical and biological changes in oligotrophic ecosystems are important indicators of environmental change, and our regional ridge-to-reef assessment revealed ecosystem-specific responses to both long-term environmental changes and disturbance legacies. 

Abstract Emergent marsh and open water have been identified as alternate stable states in tidal marshes with large, relative differences in hydrogeomorphic conditions. In the Florida coastal Everglades, concern has been raised regarding the loss of non-tidal, coastal peat marsh via dieback of emergent vegetation and peat collapse. To aid in the identification of alternate stable states, our objective was to characterize the variability of hydrogeomorphic and biologic conditions using a field survey and long-term monitoring of hydrologic and geomorphic conditions across a range of vegetated (emergent, submerged) and unvegetated (open water) communities, which we refer to as “ecosystem states,” in a non-tidal, brackish peat marsh of the coastal Everglades. Results show (1) linear relationships among field-surveyed geomorphic, hydrologic, and biologic variables, with a 35-cm mean difference in soil surface elevation between emergent and open water states, (2) an overall decline in soil elevation in the submerged state that was related to cumulative dry days, and (3) a 2× increase in porewater salinity during the dry season in the emergent state that was also related to the number of dry days. Coupled with findings from previous experiments, we propose a conceptual model that describes how seasonal hydrologic variability may lead to ecosystem state transitions between emergent and open water alternate states. Since vegetative states are only moderately salt tolerant, as sea-level rise pushes the saltwater front inland, the importance of continued progress on Everglades restoration projects, with an aim to increase the volume of freshwater being delivered to coastal wetlands, is the primary management intervention available to mitigate salinization and slow ecosystem state shifts in non-tidal, brackish peat marshes. 

Coastal wetlands are globally important stores of carbon (C). However, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), increased saltwater intrusion, and modified freshwater discharge can contribute to the collapse of peat marshes, converting coastal peatlands into open water. Applying results from multiple experiments from sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense)-dominated freshwater and brackish water marshes in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we developed a system-level mechanistic peat elevation model (EvPEM). We applied the model to simulate net ecosystem C balance (NECB) and peat elevation in response to elevated salinity under inundation and drought exposure. Using a mass C balance approach, we estimated net gain in C and corresponding export of aquatic fluxes ( ) in the freshwater marsh under ambient conditions (NECB = 1119 ± 229 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 317 ± 186 gC m−2 year−1). In contrast, the brackish water marsh exhibited substantial peat loss and aquatic C export with ambient (NECB = −366 ± 15 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 311 ± 30 gC m−2 year−1) and elevated salinity (NECB = −594 ± 94 gC m−2 year−1; FAQ = 729 ± 142 gC m−2 year−1) under extended exposed conditions. Further, mass balance suggests a considerable decline in soil C and corresponding elevation loss with elevated salinity and seasonal dry-down. Applying EvPEM, we developed critical marsh net primary productivity (NPP) thresholds as a function of salinity to simulate accumulating, steady-state, and collapsing peat elevations. The optimization showed that ~150–1070 gC m−2 year−1 NPP could support a stable peat elevation (elevation change ≈ SLR), with the corresponding salinity ranging from 1 to 20 ppt under increasing inundation levels. The C budgeting and modeling illustrate the impacts of saltwater intrusion, inundation, and seasonal dry-down and reduce uncertainties in understanding the fate of coastal peat wetlands with SLR and freshwater restoration. The modeling results provide management targets for hydrologic restoration based on the ecological conditions needed to reduce the vulnerability of the Everglades' peat marshes to collapse. The approach can be extended to other coastal peatlands to quantify C loss and improve understanding of the influence of the biological controls on wetland C storage changes for coastal management.