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Recent reports of insect declines have raised concerns about the potential for concomitant losses to ecosystem processes. However, understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines is challenging, especially given the data deficiencies for most species. Needed are approaches that can help quantify the magnitude and potential causes of declines at levels above species. Here we present an analytical framework for assessing broad‐scale plant–insect phenologies and their relationship to community‐level insect abundance patterns. We intentionally apply a species‐neutral approach to analyse trends in phenology and abundance at the macroecological scale. Because both phenology and abundance are critical to ecosystem processes, we estimate aggregate metrics using the overwintering (diapause) stage, a key species trait regulating phenology and environmental sensitivities. This approach can be used across broad spatiotemporal scales and multiple taxa, including less well‐studied groups. Using community (‘citizen’) science butterfly observations from multiple platforms across the Eastern USA, we show that the relationships between environmental drivers, phenology and abundance depend on the diapause stage. In particular, egg‐diapausing butterflies show marked changes in adult‐onset phenology in relation to plant phenology and are rapidly declining in abundance over a 20‐year span across the study region. Our results also demonstrate the negative consequences of warmer winters for the abundance of egg‐diapausing butterflies, irrespective of plant phenology. In sum, the diapause stage strongly shapes both phenological sensitivities and developmental requirements across seasons, providing a basis for predicting the impacts of environmental change across trophic levels. Utilizing a framework that ties thermal performance across life stages in relation to climate and lower‐trophic‐level phenology provides a critical step towards predicting changes in ecosystem processes provided by butterflies and other herbivorous insects into the future. 

Abstract The availability of citizen science data has resulted in growing applications in biodiversity science. One widely used platform, iNaturalist, provides millions of digitally vouchered observations submitted by a global user base. These observation records include a date and a location but otherwise do not contain any information about the sampling process. As a result, sampling biases must be inferred from the data themselves. In the present article, we examine spatial and temporal biases in iNaturalist observations from the platform's launch in 2008 through the end of 2019. We also characterize user behavior on the platform in terms of individual activity level and taxonomic specialization. We found that, at the level of taxonomic class, the users typically specialized on a particular group, especially plants or insects, and rarely made observations of the same species twice. Biodiversity scientists should consider whether user behavior results in systematic biases in their analyses before using iNaturalist data. 

Abstract Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21^stcentury. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia. 

ABSTRACT Biofilm development in Bacillus subtilis is regulated at multiple levels. While a number of known signals that trigger biofilm formation do so through the activation of one or more sensory histidine kinases, it was discovered that biofilm activation is also coordinated by sensing intracellular metabolic signals, including serine starvation. Serine starvation causes ribosomes to pause on specific serine codons, leading to a decrease in the translation rate of sinR , which encodes a master repressor for biofilm matrix genes and ultimately triggers biofilm induction. How serine levels change in different growth stages, how B. subtilis regulates intracellular serine levels, and how serine starvation triggers ribosomes to pause on selective serine codons remain unknown. Here, we show that serine levels decrease as cells enter stationary phase and that unlike most other amino acid biosynthesis genes, expression of serine biosynthesis genes decreases upon the transition into stationary phase. The deletion of the gene for a serine deaminase responsible for converting serine to pyruvate led to a delay in biofilm formation, further supporting the idea that serine levels are a critical intracellular signal for biofilm activation. Finally, we show that levels of all five serine tRNA isoacceptors are decreased in stationary phase compared with exponential phase. However, the three isoacceptors recognizing UCN serine codons are reduced to a much greater extent than the two that recognize AGC and AGU serine codons. Our findings provide evidence for a link between serine homeostasis and biofilm development in B. subtilis . IMPORTANCE In Bacillus subtilis , biofilm formation is triggered in response to environmental and cellular signals. It was proposed that serine limitation acts as a proxy for nutrient status and triggers biofilm formation at the onset of biofilm entry through a novel signaling mechanism caused by global ribosome pausing on selective serine codons. In this study, we reveal that serine levels decrease at the biofilm entry due to catabolite control and a serine shunt mechanism. We also show that levels of five serine tRNA isoacceptors are differentially decreased in stationary phase compared with exponential phase; three isoacceptors recognizing UCN serine codons are reduced much more than the two recognizing AGC and AGU codons. This finding indicates a possible mechanism for selective ribosome pausing.