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Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical causal inference. Current benchmarks usually involve simplified tasks. For example, these tasks might only ask LLMs to identify semantic causal relationships or draw conclusions directly from raw data. As a result, models may overlook important statistical pitfalls, such as Simpson’s paradox or selection bias. This oversight limits the applicability of LLMs in the real world. To address these limitations, we propose CausalPitfalls, a comprehensive benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate the capability of LLMs in overcoming common causal inference pitfalls. Our benchmark features structured challenges across multiple difficulty levels, each paired with grading rubrics. This approach allows us to quantitatively measure both causal reasoning capabilities and the reliability of LLMs’ responses. We evaluate models using two protocols: (1) direct prompting, which assesses intrinsic causal reasoning, and (2) code-assisted prompting, where models generate executable code for statistical analysis. Additionally, we validate the effectiveness of this judge by comparing its scoring with assessments from human experts. Our results reveal significant limitations in current LLMs when performing statistical causal inference. The CausalPitfalls benchmark provides essential guidance and quantitative metrics to advance the development of trustworthy causal reasoning systems. Our code is publicly available at CausalPitfalls. 

Graphs are ubiquitous in various domains, such as social networks and biological systems. Despite the great successes of graph neural networks (GNNs) in modeling and analyzing complex graph data, the inductive bias of locality assumption, which involves exchanging information only within neighboring connected nodes, restricts GNNs in capturing long-range dependencies and global patterns in graphs. Inspired by the classic Brachistochrone problem, we seek how to devise a new inductive bias for cutting-edge graph application and present a general framework through the lens of variational analysis. The backbone of our framework is a two-way mapping between the discrete GNN model and continuous diffusion functional, which allows us to design application-specific objective function in the continuous domain and engineer discrete deep model with mathematical guarantees. First, we address over-smoothing in current GNNs. Specifically, our inference reveals that the existing layer-by-layer models of graph embedding learning are equivalent to a ℓ 2 -norm integral functional of graph gradients, which is the underlying cause of the over-smoothing problem. Similar to edge-preserving filters in image denoising, we introduce the total variation (TV) to promote alignment of the graph diffusion pattern with the global information present in community topologies. On top of this, we devise a new selective mechanism for inductive bias that can be easily integrated into existing GNNs and effectively address the trade-off between model depth and over-smoothing. Second, we devise a novel generative adversarial network (GAN) to predict the spreading flows in the graph through a neural transport equation. To avoid the potential issue of vanishing flows, we tailor the objective function to minimize the transportation within each community while maximizing the inter-community flows. Our new GNN models achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on graph learning benchmarks such as Cora, Citeseer, and Pubmed.