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This paper evaluates the effects of being an only child in a family on psychological health, leveraging data on the One-Child Policy in China. We use an instrumental variable approach to address the potential unmeasured confounding between the fertility decision and psychological health, where the instrumental variable is an index on the intensity of the implementation of the One-Child Policy. We establish an analytical link between the local instrumental variable approach and principal stratification to accommodate the continuous instrumental variable. Within the principal stratification framework, we postulate a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer various causal estimands of policy interest while adjusting for the clustering data structure. We apply the method to the data from the China Family Panel Studies and find small but statistically significant negative effects of being an only child on self-reported psychological health for some subpopulations. Our analysis reveals treatment effect heterogeneity with respect to both observed and unobserved characteristics. In particular, urban males suffer the most from being only children, and the negative effect has larger magnitude if the families were more resistant to the One-Child Policy. We also conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the key instrumental variable assumption. 

This Letter reports measurements of muon-neutrino disappearance and electron-neutrino appearance and the corresponding antineutrino processes between the two NOvA detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. These measurements use a dataset with double the neutrino mode beam exposure that was previously analyzed, along with improved simulation and analysis techniques. A joint fit to these samples in the three-flavor paradigm results in the most precise single-experiment constraint on the atmospheric neutrino mass splitting, $\mathrm{\Delta }{m}_{32}^2=2.431_{-0.034}^{+0.036}(-2.479_{-0.036}^{+0.036})\times {10}^{-3}{\mathrm{eV}}^2$if the mass ordering is normal (inverted). In both orderings, a region close to maximal mixing with ${\sin }^2{\theta }_{23}=0.55_{-0.06}^{+0.02}$is preferred. The NOvA data show a mild preference for the normal mass ordering with a Bayes factor of 2.4 (corresponding to 70% of the posterior probability), indicating that the normal ordering is 2.4 times more probable than the inverted ordering. When incorporating a 2D $\mathrm{\Delta }{m}_{32}^2-{\sin }^{2}2{\theta }_{13}$constraint based on Daya Bay data, this preference strengthens to a Bayes factor of 6.6 (87%). 

Summary It is important to draw causal inference from observational studies, but this becomes challenging if the confounders have missing values. Generally, causal effects are not identifiable if the confounders are missing not at random. In this article we propose a novel framework for nonparametric identification of causal effects with confounders subject to an outcome-independent missingness, which means that the missing data mechanism is independent of the outcome, given the treatment and possibly missing confounders. We then propose a nonparametric two-stage least squares estimator and a parametric estimator for causal effects. 

Estimating causal effects under exogeneity hinges on two key assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. Researchers often argue that unconfoundedness is more plausible when more covariates are included in the analysis. Less discussed is the fact that covariate overlap is more difficult to satisfy in this setting. In this paper, we explore the implications of overlap in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates and formalize curse-of-dimensionality argument, suggesting that these assumptions are stronger than investigators likely realize. Our key innovation is to explore how strict overlap restricts global discrepancies between the covariate distributions in the treated and control populations. Exploiting results from information theory, we derive explicit bounds on the average imbalance in covariate means under strict overlap and show that these bounds become more restrictive as the dimension grows large. We discuss how these implications interact with assumptions and procedures commonly deployed in observational causal inference, including sparsity and trimming. 

We present the measurement of ${\pi }^{+}$-argon inelastic cross sections using the ProtoDUNE single-phase liquid argon time projection chamber in the incident ${\pi }^{+}$kinetic energy range of 500–800 MeV in multiple exclusive channels (absorption, charge exchange, and the remaining inelastic interactions). The results of this analysis are important inputs to simulations of liquid argon neutrino experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment and the Short Baseline Neutrino program at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. They will be employed to improve the modeling of final state interactions within neutrino event generators used by these experiments, as well as the modeling of ${\pi }^{+}$-argon secondary interactions within the liquid argon. This is the first measurement of ${\pi }^{+}$-argon absorption at this kinetic energy range as well as the first ever measurement of ${\pi }^{+}$-argon charge exchange. 

The 2x2 Demonstrator, a prototype for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) liquid argon (LAr) Near Detector, was exposed to the Neutrinos from the Main Injector (NuMI) neutrino beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab). This detector is a prototype of a new modular design for a liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC), comprising a two-by-two array of four modules, each further segmented into two optically isolated LArTPCs. The 2x2 Demonstrator features a number of pioneering technologies, including a low-profile resistive field shell to establish drift fields, native 3D ionization pixelated imaging, and a high-coverage dielectric light readout system. The 2.4-tonne active mass detector is flanked upstream and downstream by supplemental solid-scintillator tracking planes, repurposed from the MINERvA experiment, which track ionizing particles exiting the argon volume. The antineutrino beam data collected by the detector over a 4.5 day period in 2024 include over 30,000 neutrino interactions in the LAr active volume—the first neutrino interactions reported by a DUNE detector prototype. During its physics-quality run, the 2x2 Demonstrator operated at a nominal drift field of 500 V/cm and maintained good LAr purity, with a stable electron lifetime of approximately 1.25 ms. This paper describes the detector and supporting systems, summarizes the installation and commissioning, and presents the initial validation of collected NuMI beam and off-beam self-triggers. In addition, it highlights observed interactions in the detector volume, including candidate muon antineutrino events. 

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation neutrino experiment with a rich physics program that includes searches for the hypothetical phenomenon of proton decay. Utilizing liquid-argon time-projection chamber technology, DUNE is expected to achieve world-leading sensitivity in the proton decay channels that involve charged kaons in their final states. The first DUNE demonstrator, ProtoDUNE Single-Phase, was a 0.77 kt detector that operated from 2018 to 2020 at the CERN Neutrino Platform, exposed to a mixed hadron and electron test-beam with momenta ranging from 0.3 to $7\mathrm{GeV}/\mathrm{c}$. We present a selection of low-energy kaons among the secondary particles produced in hadronic reactions, using data from the 6 and $7\mathrm{GeV}/\mathrm{c}$beam runs. The selection efficiency is 1% and the sample purity 92%. The initial energies of the selected kaon candidates encompass the expected energy range of kaons originating from proton decay events in DUNE (below $\sim 200\mathrm{MeV}$). In addition, we demonstrate the capability of this detector technology to discriminate between kaons and other particles such as protons and muons, and provide a comprehensive description of their energy loss in liquid argon, which shows good agreement with the simulation. These results pave the way for future proton decay searches at DUNE. 

Double- and single-differential cross sections for inclusive charged-current ${\nu }_{\mu }$-nucleus scattering are reported for the kinematic domain 0 to $2\mathrm{GeV}/c$in three-momentum transfer and 0 to 2 GeV in available energy, at a mean ${\nu }_{\mu }$energy of 1.86 GeV. The measurements are based on an estimated 995,760 ${\nu }_{\mu }$charged-current (CC) interactions in the scintillator medium of the NOvA Near Detector. The subdomain populated by 2-particle-2-hole (2p2h) reactions is identified by the cross section excess relative to predictions for ${\nu }_{\mu }$-nucleus scattering that are constrained by a data control sample. Models for 2-particle-2-hole processes are rated by ${\chi }^2$comparisons of the predicted-versus-measured ${\nu }_{\mu }$CC inclusive cross section over the full phase space and in the restricted subdomain. Shortfalls are observed in neutrino generator predictions obtained using the theory-based València and SuSAv2 2p2h models. Published by the American Physical Society2025