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Abstract Phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean and sub‐Arctic seas support a rich marine food web that sustains Indigenous communities as well as some of the world's largest fisheries. As sea ice retreat leads to further expansion of these fisheries, there is growing need for predictions of phytoplankton net primary production (NPP), which will likely allow better management of food resources in the region. Here, we use perfect model simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to quantify short‐term (month to 2 years) predictability of Arctic Ocean NPP. Our results indicate that NPP is potentially predictable during the most productive summer months for at least 2 years, largely due to the highly predictable Arctic shelves where fisheries in the Arctic are projected to expand. Sea surface temperatures, which are an important limitation on phytoplankton growth and also are predictable for multiple years, are the most important physical driver of this predictability. Finally, we find that the predictability of NPP in the 2030s is enhanced relative to the 2010s, indicating that the utility of these predictions may increase in the near future. This work indicates that operational forecasts using Earth system models may provide moderately skillful predictions of NPP in the Arctic, possibly aiding in the management of Arctic marine resources. 

Abstract To fulfill their conservation potential and provide safeguards for biodiversity, marine protected areas (MPAs) need coordinated research and monitoring for informed management through effective evaluation of ecosystem dynamics. However, coordination is challenging, often due to knowledge gaps caused by inadequate access to data and resources, compounded by insufficient communication between scientists and managers. We propose to use the world's largest MPA in the Ross Sea, Antarctica as a model system to create a comprehensive framework for an interdisciplinary network supporting research and monitoring that could be implemented in other remote large‐scale international MPAs. Our proposed framework has three key components: (i) policy engagement, including delineation of policy needs and ecosystem metrics to assess MPA effectiveness; (ii) community partner engagement to elevate diverse voices, build trust, and share resources; and (iii) integrated science comprising three themes. These themes are: advancement of data science and cyberinfrastructure to facilitate data synthesis and sharing; biophysical modeling towards understanding ecosystem changes and uncertainties; and execution of observational and process studies to address uncertainties and evaluate ecosystem metrics. This proposed framework can improve MPA implementation by generating policy‐relevant science through this coordinated network, which can in turn improve MPA effectiveness in the Ross Sea and beyond.