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Creators/Authors contains: "Elvidge, Sean"

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  1. Abstract Prior to use in operational systems, it is essential to validate ionospheric models in a manner relevant to their intended application to ensure satisfactory performance. For Over‐the‐Horizon radars (OTHR) operating in the high‐frequency (HF) band (3–30 MHz), the problem of model validation is severe when used in Coordinate Registration (CR) and Frequency Management Systems (FMS). It is imperative that the full error characteristics of models is well understood in these applications due to the critical relationship they impose on system performance. To better understand model performance in the context of OTHR, we introduce an ionospheric model validation technique using the oblique ground backscatter measurements in soundings from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). Analysis is performed in terms of the F‐region leading edge (LE) errors and assessment of range‐elevation distributions using calibrated interferometer data. This technique is demonstrated by validating the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2016 for January and June in both 2014 and 2018. LE RMS errors of 100–400 km and 400–800 km are observed for winter and summer months, respectively. Evening errors regularly exceeding 1,000 km across all months are identified. Ionosonde driven corrections to the IRI‐2016 peak parameters provide improvements of 200–800 km to the LE, with the greatest improvements observed during the nighttime. Diagnostics of echo distributions indicate consistent underestimates in model NmF2 during the daytime hours of June 2014 due to offsets of −8° being observed in modeled elevation angles at 18:00 and 21:00 UT. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2025
  2. Abstract The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh. 
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