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Creators/Authors contains: "Engel, Miles"

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  1. Abstract Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co‐located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics‐based RAM‐SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data‐driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. The results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He‐band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves. 
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  2. Abstract Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices. 
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