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Abstract

&#39;Panama-El-Nino-publish.zip&#39; contains all the code and data necessary to reproduce the analyses in the manuscript. Please unzip the file and see README.md for instructions.<div><br /></div><div>&#39;rocker-geospatial-rstan.sif&#39; is a Singularity container that comes with all necessary packages pre-installed. Please seed README.md in the &#39;Panama-El-Nino-publish.zip&#39; file for instructions.<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Abstract</b></div><div>As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent due to global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through effects on early life stages.</div></div><div><br /></div>

In tropical forests, drought and herbivory represent two potent stresses on seedlings. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of severe droughts in many tropical forests, which may influence seedling vulnerability to herbivores if drought stress affects seedling palatability. Furthermore, contrasting selective pressures in wetter vs drier forests could mean that species well‐adapted to herbivores are less drought resistant and vice versa. In this study, we measured seedling performance and herbivory in a common garden experiment where seedlings of 15 tree species were subjected to irrigation or rainfall exclusion treatments across two dry seasons in Panama. Water manipulation had no effects on foliar herbivory during the experiment for all species combined and for 14 of the 15 focal species when analyzed separately. There was large variation among species in herbivore damage, but no relationship between the sensitivity of species to drought and the amount of herbivory they experienced. Altogether, our findings suggest that increasing drought stress is unlikely to directly alter tropical tree seedling susceptibility to herbivore attack in this forest. Additional studies are needed to determine whether drought alters tropical plant‐herbivore interactions via other mechanisms, such as through changes in herbivorous insect communities and/or increases in fitnessmore »costs of herbivory.

Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

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As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño–related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long‐term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community‐wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015–16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought‐sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño–related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.

In tropical forests, insect herbivores exert significant pressure on plant populations. Adaptation to such pressure is hypothesized to be a driver of high tropical diversity, but direct evidence for local adaptation to herbivory in tropical forests is sparse. At the same time, herbivore pressure has been hypothesized to increase with rainfall in the tropics, which could lead to differences among sites in the degree of local adaptation. To assess the presence of local adaptation and its interaction with rainfall, we compared herbivore damage on seedlings of local vs. nonlocal populations at sites differing in moisture availability in a reciprocal transplant experiment spanning a rainfall gradient in Panama. For 13 native tree species, seeds collected from multiple populations along the rainfall gradient were germinated in a shadehouse and then transplanted to experimental sites within the species range. We tracked the proportion of seedlings attacked over 1.5 yr and quantified the percentage of leaf area damaged at the end of the study. Seedlings originating from local populations were less likely to be attacked and experienced lower amounts of herbivore damage than those from nonlocal populations, but only on the wetter end of the rainfall gradient. However, overall herbivore damage was higher atmore »the drier site compared to wetter sites, contrary to expectation. Taken together, these findings support the idea that herbivory can result in local adaptation within tropical tree species; however, the likelihood of local adaptation varies among sites because of environmentally driven differences in investment in defense or herbivore specialization or both.

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Hydraulic traits are important for woody plant functioning and distribution. Associations among hydraulic traits, other leaf and stem traits, and species’ performance are relatively well understood for trees, but remain poorly studied for lianas. We evaluated the coordination among hydraulic efficiency (i.e., maximum hydraulic conductivity), hydraulic safety (i.e., cavitation resistance), a suite of eight morphological and physiological traits, and species’ abundances for saplings of 24 liana species and 27 tree species in wet tropical forests in Panama. Trees showed a strong trade‐off between hydraulic efficiency and hydraulic safety, whereas efficiency and safety were decoupled in lianas. Hydraulic efficiency was strongly and similarly correlated with acquisitive traits for lianas and trees (e.g., positively with gas exchange rates and negatively with wood density). Hydraulic safety, however, showed no correlations with other traits in lianas, but with several in trees (e.g., positively with leaf dry matter content and wood density and negatively with gas exchange rates), indicating that in lianas hydraulic efficiency is an anchor trait because it is correlated with many other traits, while in trees both efficiency and safety are anchor traits. Traits related to shade tolerance (e.g., low specific leaf area and high wood density) were associated with highmore »local tree sapling abundance, but not with liana abundance. Our results suggest that different, yet unknown mechanisms determine hydraulic safety and local‐scale abundance for lianas compared to trees. For trees, the trade‐off between efficiency and safety will provide less possibilities for ecological strategies. For lianas, however, the uncoupling of efficiency and safety could allow them to have high hydraulic efficiency, and hence high growth rates, without compromising resistance to cavitation under drought, thus allowing them to thrive and outperform trees under drier conditions.

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