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Abstract We search for features in the mass distribution of detected compact binary coalescences which signify the transition between neutron stars (NSs) and black holes (BHs). We analyze all gravitational-wave (GW) detections by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, the Virgo Collaboration, and the KAGRA Collaboration (LVK) made through the end of the first half of the third observing run, and find clear evidence for two different populations of compact objects based solely on GW data. We confidently (99.3%) find a steepening relative to a single power law describing NSs and low-mass BHs below 2.4 − 0.5 + 0.5 M ⊙ , which is consistent with many predictions for the maximum NS mass. We find suggestions of the purported lower mass gap between the most massive NSs and the least massive BHs, but are unable to conclusively resolve it with current data. If it exists, we find the lower mass gap’s edges to lie at 2.2 − 0.5 + 0.7 M ⊙ and 6.0 − 1.4 + 2.4 M ⊙ . We reexamine events that have been deemed “exceptional” by the LVK collaborations in the context of these features. We analyze GW190814 self-consistently in the context of the full population of compactmore »binaries, finding support for its secondary to be either a NS or a lower mass gap object, consistent with previous claims. Our models are the first to accommodate this event, which is an outlier with respect to the binary BH population. We find that GW200105 and GW200115 probe the edges of, and may have components within, the lower mass gap. As future data improve global population models, the classification of these events will also improve.« less

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) records exceptional data on pulsars’ energy-dependent X-ray pulse profiles. However, in searching for evidence of pulsations, Guillot et al. (2019) introduce a procedure to select an ordered subset of data that maximizes a detection statistic (the H-test). I show that this can degrade subsequent analyses using an idealized model with stationary expected count rates from both noise and signal. Specifically, the data-selection procedure biases the inferred mean count rate to be too low and the inferred pulsation amplitude to be too high, and the size of these biases scales strongly with the amount of data that is rejected and the true signal amplitude. The procedure also alters the H-test’s null distribution, rendering nominal significance estimates overly optimistic. While the idealized model does not capture all the complexities of real NICER data, it suggests that these biases could be important for NICER’s observations of J0740+6620 and other faint pulsars (observations of J0030+0451 are likely less affected). I estimate that these effects may introduce a bias of$\mathit{}(10\%)$on average in the inferred modulation depth of lightcurves like J0740+6620's, and may be as large as$\mathit{}(50\%)$more »type='simple'/>for fainter pulsars. However, the change for a single data set like J0740+6620 is expected to be a shift between −5% and +20%. This could imply that the lower limit on J0740+6620's radius is slightly larger than it should be, although preliminary investigations suggest the radius constraints shift to larger radii by$\mathit{}(1\%)$with the same overall statistical precision using real J0740+6620 data.

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As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair-instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star–black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO–Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusionsmore »of Abbott et al. GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 is an outlier.

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ABSTRACT Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole–neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about binary properties and hence whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole–neutron star, a binary black hole, or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to both predict the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential light curves for these events, in order to improve the follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters by low-latency pipelines represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from themore »second and third Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO)–Virgo observing runs.« less