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Recent studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to horizontal diffusion in numerical models. It is unclear whether such sensitivity comes from the horizontal diffusion in or above the boundary layer. To address this issue, both an Ooyama-type model and a full-physics model are used to conduct sensitivity experiments with reduced or enlarged horizontal mixing length (l_h) in the boundary layer and/or in the free atmosphere. Results from both models show that enlarging (reducing)l_hthroughout the model domain considerably reduces (increases) the TC intensification rate and quasi-steady intensity. A new finding is that changingl_habove the boundary layer imposes a much greater influence than that in the boundary layer. Largel_habove the boundary layer is found to effectively reduce the radial gradient of tangential wind inside the radius of maximum tangential wind and thus the inward flux of absolute vorticity, reducing the positive tangential wind tendency and the TC intensification rate and the steady-state intensity. In contrast, although largerl_hin the boundary layer reduces the boundary layer tangential wind tendency, it also leads to the more inward-penetrated inflow and thus enhances the inward flux of absolute vorticity, which offsets part of the direct negative contribution by horizontal diffusion, making the net change in tangential wind tendency not obvious. Results from three-dimensional simulations also show that the resolved eddies contribute negatively to TC spinup whenl_his small, while its effect weakens whenl_his enhanced either in or above the boundary layer.

 

Abstract The first successful simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification was achieved with a three-layer model, often named the Ooyama-type three-layer model, which consists of a slab boundary layer and two shallow water layers above. Later studies showed that the use of a slab boundary layer would produce unrealistic boundary layer wind structure and too strong eyewall updraft at the top of TC boundary layer and thus simulate unrealistically rapid intensification compared to the use of a height-parameterized boundary layer. To fully consider the highly height-dependent boundary layer dynamics in the Ooyama-type three-layer model, this study replaced the slab boundary layer with a multilevel boundary layer in the Ooyama-type model and used it to conduct simulations of TC intensification and also compared the simulation with that from the model version with a slab boundary layer. Results show that compared with the simulation with a slab boundary layer, the use of a multilevel boundary layer can greatly improve simulations of the boundary-layer wind structure and the strength and radial location of eyewall updraft, and thus more realistic intensification rate due to better treatments of the surface layer processes and the nonlinear advection terms in the boundary layer. Sensitivity of the simulated TCs to the model configuration and to both horizontal and vertical mixing lengths, sea surface temperature, the Coriolis parameter, and the initial TC vortex structure are also examined. The results demonstrate that this new model can reproduce various sensitivities comparable to those found in previous studies using fully physics models. 

Abstract The existence of supergradient wind in the interior of the boundary layer is a distinct feature of a tropical cyclone (TC). Although the vertical advection is shown to enhance supergradient wind in TC boundary layer (TCBL), how and to what extent the strength and structure of supergradient wind are modulated by vertical advection are not well understood. In this study, both a TCBL model and an axisymmetric full-physics model are used to quantify the contribution of vertical advection process to the strength and vertical structure of supergradient wind in TCBL. Results from the TCBL model show that the removal of vertical advection of radial wind reduces both the strength and height of supergradient wind by slightly more than 50%. The removal of vertical advection of agradient wind reduces the height of the supergradient wind core by ~30% but increases the strength of supergradient wind by ~10%. Results from the full-physics model show that the removal of vertical advection of radial wind or agradient wind reduces both the strength and height of supergradient wind but the removal of that of radial wind produces a more substantial reduction (52%) than the removal of that of agradient wind (35%). However, both the intensification rate and final intensity of the simulated TCs in terms of maximum 10-m wind speed show little differences in experiments with and without the vertical advection of radial or agradient wind, suggesting that supergradient wind contributes little to either the intensification rate or the steady-state intensity of the simulated TC. 

Abstract This study revisits the superintensity of tropical cyclones (TCs), which is defined as the excess maximum surface wind speed normalized by the corresponding theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI), based on ensemble axisymmetric numerical simulations, with the focus on the dependence of superintensity on the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and the initial environmental atmospheric sounding. Results show a robust decrease of superintensity with increasing SST regardless of being in experiments with an SST-independent initial atmospheric sounding or in those with the SST-dependent initial atmospheric soundings as in nature sorted for the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic. It is found that the increase in either convective activity (and thus diabatic heating) in the TC outer region or theoretical MPI or both with increasing SST could reduce the superintensity. For a given SST-independent initial atmospheric sounding, the strength of convective activity in the TC outer region increases rapidly with increasing SST due to the rapidly increasing air–sea thermodynamic disequilibrium (and thus potential convective instability) with increasing SST. As a result, the decrease of superintensity with increasing SST in the SST-independent sounding experiments is dominated by the increasing convective activity in the TC outer region and is much larger than that in the SST-dependent sounding experiments, and the TC intensity becomes sub-MPI at relatively high SSTs in the former. Due to the marginal increasing tendency of convective activity in the TC outer region, the decrease of superintensity in the latter is dominated by the increase in theoretical MPI with increasing SST. 

Abstract In this study, based on the 6-hourly tropical cyclone (TC) best track data and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, statistical analyses as well as a machine learning approach, XGBoost, are used to identify and quantify factors that affect the overwater weakening rate (WR) of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2017. Statistical analyses show that the TC rapid weakening events usually occur when intense TCs cross regions with a sharp decrease in sea surface temperature (DSST) with relatively faster eastward or northward translational speeds, and move into regions with large environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) and dry conditions in the upshear-left quadrant. Results from XGBoost indicate that the relative intensity of TC (TC intensity normalized by its maximum potential intensity), DSST, and VWS are dominant factors determining TC WR, contributing 26.0%, 18.3%, and 14.9% to TC WR, and 9, 5, and 5 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR, respectively. Relative humidity in the upshear-left quadrant of VWS, zonal translational speed, divergence at 200 hPa, and meridional translational speed contribute 12.1%, 11.8%, 8.8%, and 8.1% to TC WR, respectively, but only contribute 2–3 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR individually. These findings suggest that the improved accurate analysis and prediction of the dominant factors may lead to substantial improvements in the prediction of TC WR. 

A ~14‐hr long‐lived spiral rainband in Typhoon Longwang (2005) produced catastrophic rainfall in Fujian Province of China on 2 October 2005. In this study, the effects of terrain and landmass near Fujian on the structure and propagation of this rainband are investigated through high‐resolution numerical simulations. Results show that although the terrain and landmass near Fujian played a marginal role in the formation of the rainband, both greatly affected the structure and propagation of the rainband. Namely, convection in the upwind sector of the rainband tended to be maintained and locked up near the coastline in the control experiment with both the terrain and landmass near Fujian retained, but shrank more inland with the terrain near Fujian flattened, and further inland with the landmass near Fujian replaced by the virtual ocean. It is found that due to the land‐sea surface roughness contrast, the upstream tangential winds from ocean would be substantially decelerated over land and thus induced a local subgradient force onshore near the coastline. The radially inward agradient force and the subsequent surface friction helped maintain the moisture convergence, and thus convection and the cold pool in the upwind sector of the rainband near the coastline. Although the orographic lifting and blocking effects were found to be marginal to the moisture convergence in the rainband, the terrains near Fujian enhanced the deceleration of surface winds, enhancing the effect of land‐sea surface roughness contrast on low‐level moisture convergence and thus the lockup of the upwind sector of the rainband.