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Abstract The rapid rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine raises the question of whether and when the ongoing pandemic could be eliminated with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Despite advances in the impact of NPIs and the conceptual belief that NPIs and vaccination control COVID-19 infections, we lack evidence to employ control theory in real-world social human dynamics in the context of disease spreading. We bridge the gap by developing a new analytical framework that treats COVID-19 as a feedback control system with the NPIs and vaccination as the controllers and a computational model that maps human social behaviors into input signals. This approach enables us to effectively predict the epidemic spreading in 381 Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US by learning our model parameters utilizing the time series NPIs (i.e., the stay-at-home order, face-mask wearing, and testing) data. This model allows us to optimally identify three NPIs to predict infections accurately in 381 MSAs and avoid over-fitting. Our numerical results demonstrate our approach’s excellent predictive power with R 2  > 0.9 for all the MSAs regardless of their sizes, locations, and demographic status. Our methodology allows us to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and NPIs for achieving R e to a manageable level and how the variants of concern diminish the likelihood for disease elimination at each location. Our analytical results provide insights into the debates surrounding the elimination of COVID-19. NPIs, if tailored to the MSAs, can drive the pandemic to an easily containable level and suppress future recurrences of epidemic cycles. 

Network structure provides critical information for understanding the dynamic behavior of complex systems. However, the complete structure of real-world networks is often unavailable, thus it is crucially important to develop approaches to infer a more complete structure of networks. In this paper, we integrate the configuration model for generating random networks into an Expectation–Maximization–Aggregation (EMA) framework to reconstruct the complete structure of multiplex networks. We validate the proposed EMA framework against the Expectation–Maximization (EM) framework and random model on several real-world multiplex networks, including both covert and overt ones. It is found that the EMA framework generally achieves the best predictive accuracy compared to the EM framework and the random model. As the number of layers increases, the performance improvement of EMA over EM decreases. The inferred multiplex networks can be leveraged to inform the decision-making on monitoring covert networks as well as allocating limited resources for collecting additional information to improve reconstruction accuracy. For law enforcement agencies, the inferred complete network structure can be used to develop more effective strategies for covert network interdiction. 

It is essential to study the robustness and centrality of interdependent networks for building reliable interdependent systems. Here, we consider a nonlinear load-capacity cascading failure model on interdependent networks, where the initial load distribution is not random, as usually assumed, but determined by the influence of each node in the interdependent network. The node influence is measured by an automated entropy-weighted multi-attribute algorithm that takes into account both different centrality measures of nodes and the interdependence of node pairs, then averaging for not only the node itself but also its nearest neighbors and next-nearest neighbors. The resilience of interdependent networks under such a more practical and accurate setting is thoroughly investigated for various network parameters, as well as how nodes from different layers are coupled and the corresponding coupling strength. The results thereby can help better monitoring interdependent systems.

 

Abstract An excellent method for predicting links in multiplex networks is reflected in its ability to reconstruct them accurately. Although link prediction methods perform well on estimating the existence probability of each potential link in monoplex networks by the set of partially observed links, we lack a mathematical tool to reconstruct the multiplex network from the observed aggregate topology and partially observed links in multiplex networks. Here, we fill this gap by developing a theoretical and computational framework that builds a probability space containing possible structures with a maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we discovered that the discrimination, an indicator quantifying differences between layers from an entropy perspective, determines the reconstructability, i.e., the accuracy of such reconstruction. This finding enables us to design the optimal strategy to allocate the set of observed links in different layers for promoting the optimal reconstruction of multiplex networks. Finally, the theoretical analyses are corroborated by empirical results from biological, social, engineered systems, and a large volume of synthetic networks. 

A common feature of large-scale extreme events, such as pandemics, wildfires, and major storms is that, despite their differences in etiology and duration, they significantly change routine human movement patterns. Such changes, which can be major or minor in size and duration and which differ across contexts, affect both the consequences of the events and the ability of governments to mount effective responses. Based on naturally tracked, anonymized mobility behavior from over 90 million people in the United States, we document these mobility differences in space and over time in six large-scale crises, including wildfires, major tropical storms, winter freeze and pandemics. We introduce a model that effectively captures the high-dimensional heterogeneity in human mobility changes following large-scale extreme events. Across five different metrics and regardless of spatial resolution, the changes in human mobility behavior exhibit a consistent hyperbolic decline, a pattern we characterize as “spatiotemporal decay.” When applied to the case of COVID-19, our model also uncovers significant disparities in mobility changes—individuals from wealthy areas not only reduce their mobility at higher rates at the start of the pandemic but also maintain the change longer. Residents from lower-income regions show a faster and greater hyperbolic decay, which we suggest may help account for different COVID-19 rates. Our model represents a powerful tool to understand and forecast mobility patterns post emergency, and thus to help produce more effective responses.