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Creators/Authors contains: "Garny, H"

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  1. The circulation response to climate change shapes regional climate and extremes. Over the last decade an increasing number of atmospheric circulation signals have been documented, with some attributed to human activities. The circulation signals represent an exciting opportunity for improving our understanding of dynamical mechanisms, testing our theories and reducing uncertainties. The signals have also presented puzzles that represent an opportunity for better understanding the circulation response to climate change, its contribution to climate extremes, interactions with moisture, and connection to thermodynamic discrepancies. The next decade is likely to be a golden age for dynamics with many advances possible. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  2. Age of stratospheric air is a well established metric for the stratospheric transport circulation. Rooted in a robust theoretical framework, this approach offers the benefit of being deducible from observations of trace gases. Given potential climate‐induced changes, observational constraints on stratospheric circulation are crucial. In the past two decades, scientific progress has been made in three main areas: (a) Enhanced process understanding and the development of process diagnostics led to better quantification of individual transport processes from observations and to a better understanding of model deficits. (b) The global age of air climatology is now well constrained by observations thanks to improved quality and quantity of data, including global satellite data, and through improved and consistent age calculation methods. (c) It is well established and understood that global models predict a decrease in age, that is, an accelerating stratospheric circulation, in response to forcing by greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances. Observational records now confirm long‐term forced trends in mean age in the lower stratosphere. However, in the mid‐stratosphere, uncertainties in observational records are too large to confirm or disprove the model predictions. Continuous monitoring of stratospheric trace gases and further improved methods to derive age from those tracers will be crucial to better constrain variability and long‐term trends from observations. Future work on mean age as a metric for stratospheric transport will be important due to its potential to enhance the understanding of stratospheric composition changes, address climate model biases, and assess the impacts of proposed climate geoengineering methods. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025