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Abstract Most studies assessing rates of phenotypic change focus on population mean trait values, whereas a largely overlooked additional component is changes in population trait variation. Theoretically, eco‐evolutionary dynamics mediated by such changes in trait variation could be as important as those mediated by changes in trait means. To date, however, no study has comprehensively summarised how phenotypic variation is changing in contemporary populations. Here, we explore four questions using a large database: How do changes in trait variances compare to changes in trait means? Do different human disturbances have different effects on trait variance? Do different trait types have different effects on changes in trait variance? Do studies that established a genetic basis for trait change show different patterns from those that did not? We find that changes in variation are typically small; yet we also see some very large changes associated with particular disturbances or trait types. We close by interpreting and discussing the implications of our findings in the context of eco‐evolutionary studies.more » « less
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Wagner, Catherine; Chapman, Tracey (Ed.)Divergent natural selection should lead to adaptive radiation—that is, the rapid evolution of phenotypic and ecological diversity originating from a single clade. The drivers of adaptive radiation have often been conceptualized through the concept of “adaptive landscapes,” yet formal empirical estimates of adaptive landscapes for natural adaptive radiations have proven elusive. Here, we use a 17-year dataset of Darwin’s ground finches (Geospiza spp.) at an intensively studied site on Santa Cruz (Galápagos) to estimate individual apparent lifespan in relation to beak traits. We use these estimates to model a multi-species fitness landscape, which we also convert to a formal adaptive landscape. We then assess the correspondence between estimated fitness peaks and observed phenotypes for each of five phenotypic modes (G. fuliginosa, G. fortis [small and large morphotypes], G. magnirostris, and G. scandens). The fitness and adaptive landscapes show 5 and 4 peaks, respectively, and, as expected, the adaptive landscape was smoother than the fitness landscape. Each of the five phenotypic modes appeared reasonably close to the corresponding fitness peak, yet interesting deviations were also documented and examined. By estimating adaptive landscapes in an ongoing adaptive radiation, our study demonstrates their utility as a quantitative tool for exploring and predicting adaptive radiation.more » « less
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Determining whether and how evolution is predictable is an important goal, particularly as anthropogenic disturbances lead to novel species interactions that could modify selective pres- sures. Here, we use a multigeneration field experiment with brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test hypotheses about the predictabil- ity of evolution. We manipulated the presence/absence of predators and competitors of A. sagrei across 16 islands in the Bahamas that had preexisting brown anole populations. Before the experiment and again after roughly five generations, we measured traits related to locomotor performance and habitat use by brown anoles and used double-digest restriction enzyme–associated DNA sequencing to estimate genome-wide changes in allele frequencies. Although previous work showed that predators and competitors had characteristic effects on brown anole behavior, diet, and population sizes, we found that evolutionary change at both phenotypic and genomic levels was difficult to forecast. Phenotypic changes were contingent on sex and hab- itat use, whereas genetic change was unpredictable and not measur- ably correlated with phenotypic changes, experimental treatments, or other environmental factors. Our work shows how differences in ecological context can alter evolutionary outcomes over short timescales and underscores the difficulty of forecasting evolutionary responses to multispecies interactions in natural conditions, even in a well-studied system with ample supporting ecological information.more » « less
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Abstract The termterroiris used in viticulture to emphasize how the biotic and abiotic characteristics of a local site influence grape physiology and thus the properties of wine. In ecology and evolution, such terroir (i.e., the effect of space or “site”) is expected to play an important role in shaping phenotypic traits. Just how important is the pure spatial effect of terroir (e.g., differences between sites that persist across years) in comparison to temporal variation (e.g., differences between years that persist across sites), and the interaction between space and time (e.g., differences between sites change across years)? We answer this question by analyzing beak and body traits of 4388 medium ground finches (Geospiza fortis) collected across 10 years at three locations in Galápagos. Analyses of variance indicated that phenotypic variation was mostly explained by site for beak size (η2 = 0.42) and body size (η2 = 0.43), with a smaller contribution for beak shape (η2 = 0.05) and body shape (η2 = 0.12), but still higher compared to year and site‐by‐year effects. As such, the effect of terroir seems to be very strong in Darwin's finches, notwithstanding the oft‐emphasized interannual variation. However, these results changed dramatically when we excluded data from Daphne Major, indicating that the strong effect of terroir was mostly driven by that particular population. These phenotypic results were largely paralleled in analyses of environmental variables (rainfall and vegetation indices) expected to shape terroir in this system. These findings affirm the evolutionary importance of terroir, while also revealing its dependence on other factors, such as geographical isolation.more » « less
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Abstract Wild populations must continuously respond to environmental changes or they risk extinction. Those responses can be measured as phenotypic rates of change, which can allow us to predict contemporary adaptive responses, some of which are evolutionary. About two decades ago, a database of phenotypic rates of change in wild populations was compiled. Since then, researchers have used (and expanded) this database to examine phenotypic responses to specific types of human disturbance. Here, we update the database by adding 5675 new estimates of phenotypic change. Using this newer version of the data base, now containing 7338 estimates of phenotypic change, we revisit the conclusions of four published articles. We then synthesize the expanded database to compare rates of change across different types of human disturbance. Analyses of this expanded database suggest that: (i) a small absolute difference in rates of change exists between human disturbed and natural populations, (ii) harvesting by humans results in higher rates of change than other types of disturbance, (iii) introduced populations have increased rates of change, and (iv) body size does not increase through time. Thus, findings from earlier analyses have largely held‐up in analyses of our new database that encompass a much larger breadth of species, traits, and human disturbances. Lastly, we use new analyses to explore how various types of human disturbances affect rates of phenotypic change, and we call for this database to serve as a steppingstone for further analyses to understand patterns of contemporary phenotypic change.more » « less