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  1. v22/18-780
  2. Summary Since the introduction of fiducial inference by Fisher in the 1930s, its application has been largely confined to relatively simple, parametric problems. In this paper, we present what might be the first time fiducial inference is systematically applied to estimation of a nonparametric survival function under right censoring. We find that the resulting fiducial distribution gives rise to surprisingly good statistical procedures applicable to both one-sample and two-sample problems. In particular, we use the fiducial distribution of a survival function to construct pointwise and curvewise confidence intervals for the survival function, and propose tests based on the curvewise confidence interval. We establish a functional Bernstein–von Mises theorem, and perform thorough simulation studies in scenarios with different levels of censoring. The proposed fiducial-based confidence intervals maintain coverage in situations where asymptotic methods often have substantial coverage problems. Furthermore, the average length of the proposed confidence intervals is often shorter than the length of confidence intervals for competing methods that maintain coverage. Finally, the proposed fiducial test is more powerful than various types of log-rank tests and sup log-rank tests in some scenarios. We illustrate the proposed fiducial test by comparing chemotherapy against chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy, using data from themore »treatment of locally unresectable gastric cancer.« less
  3. Samejima’s graded response model (GRM) has gained popularity in the analyses of ordinal response data in psychological, educational, and health-related assessment.Obtaining high-quality point and interval estimates for GRM parameters attracts a great deal of attention in the literature. In the current work, we derive generalized fiducial inference (GFI) for a family of multidimensional graded response model, implement a Gibbs sampler to perform fiducial estimation, and compare its finite-sample performance with several commonly used likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches via three simulation studies. It is found that the proposed method is able to yield reliable inference even in the presence of small sample size and extreme generating parameter values, outperforming the other candidate methods under investigation. The use of GFI as a convenient tool to quantify sampling variability in various inferential procedures is illustrated by an empirical data analysis using the patient-reported emotional distress data.