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Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies. 

Abstract Wildfires are integral for western US forests that have evolved with fire. Here we define “good wildfire” as areas that burn in an ecologically beneficial way, with a severity and return interval analogous to their historical fire regimes prior to European settlement. When severities match what an ecosystem historically experienced they can regulate forest structure while promoting regeneration, even in a warming climate¹. We quantified the amount of forested area (i.e., deciduous, conifer, or mixed forest types) burned with a severity and frequency matching its regime, and compared that to the area of prescribed burns in forests (2010-2020). Of forests that burned in the western US, 49% of the area burned as low-moderate severity good wildfire. High severity good wildfire (in systems that historically experienced this type of fire) represented an additional 9% of forest area burned, bringing the total area of good wildfire to 58% of forested area burned. The low-moderate severity good wildfires burned 3.1 million forest ha (N = 18,061 events), more than double the 1.4 million ha of prescribed burning (N = 24,817 events on federal land) over the same period. Knowing that fires are likely going to increase in frequency and area with warming², our key challenge will be promoting good wildfire while still protecting lives and property. 

Over the past several decades, forests worldwide have experienced increases in biotic disturbances caused by insects and plant pathogens – a trend that is expected to continue with climate warming. Whereas the causes and effects of individual biotic disturbances are well studied, spatiotemporal interactions among multiple biotic disturbances are less so, despite their importance to ecosystem function and resilience. Here, we highlight an emerging phenomenon of “hotspots” of biotic disturbances (that is, two or more biotic disturbances that overlap in space and time), documenting trends in recent decades in temperate conifer forests of the western US. We also explore potential mechanisms behind and effects of biotic disturbance hotspots, with particular focus on how altered post‐disturbance recovery (successional pathways) can have profound consequences for ecosystem resilience and biodiversity conservation. Finally, we propose research directions that can elucidate drivers of biotic disturbance hotspots and their ecological effects at various spatial scales, and provide insight into this new knowledge frontier. 

Context: Growth releases of individuals that survive disturbances are important compensatory response mechanisms that contribute to ecological resilience. However, the role of fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in shaping compensatory growth responses is poorly understood for many broad-scale disturbances. Objectives: We quantified how fine-scale spatial structure affects individual and aggregate tree growthleading up to and following a severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak. We asked: (1) How does individual tree growth vary with tree- and neighborhood-scale characteristics? (2) How do within-stand aggregate growth and overstory recruitment vary with neighborhood-scale characteristics? Methods: We used a spatially explicit long-term monitoring dataset of a subalpine lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest (in Colorado, USA) in which every tree ≥ 5 cm diameter was measured and mapped prior to (1989, 2004) and following (2018) a severe MPB outbreak (2003–2011). We used spatial regression to characterize drivers of growth. Results: Overall, we found strong evidence for post-outbreak compensatory responses across spatial scales. Neighborhood characteristics shaped both individual and aggregate growth, with the magnitude of growth strongly mediated by pre-outbreak neighborhood structure and neighborhood mortality. Variation in tree-scale growth, combined with the spatial arrangement of surviving trees, resulted in highly variable emergent patterns of aggregate growth and recruitment. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of fine-scale landscape configuration in shaping forest resilience. Quantifying compensatory responses in a spatially explicit framework at different scales is critical for modeling post-disturbance forest dynamics, which is increasingly important as climate warms and forest disturbance regimes change. 

Abstract Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing forest-fire area. Here, we test how fire-fuel feedbacks moderate near-term (2021–2050) climate-driven increases in forest-fire area across the western US. Assuming constant fuels, climate–fire models project a doubling of  forest-fire area compared to 1991–2020. Fire-fuel feedbacks only modestly attenuate the projected increase in forest-fire area. Even models with strong feedbacks project increasing interannual variability in forest-fire area and more than a two-fold increase in the likelihood of years exceeding the 2020 fire season. Fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks are unlikely to strongly constrain the profound climate-driven broad-scale increases in forest-fire area by the mid-21st century, highlighting the need for proactive adaptation to increased western US forest-fire impacts.