Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) and three time periods: 1991–2010 (recent past), 2041–2060 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90‐day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end‐century/SSP5‐8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop‐growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo‐Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End‐century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid‐century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions—reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub‐Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor‐intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.
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Samuels, Louisa ; Nakstad, Britt ; Roos, Nathalie ; Bonell, Ana ; Chersich, Matthew ; Havenith, George ; Luchters, Stanley ; Day, Louise-Tina ; Hirst, Jane E. ; Singh, Tanya ; et al ( , International Journal of Biometeorology)Abstract Many populations experience high seasonal temperatures. Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to extreme heat because ambient heat exposure has been linked to pregnancy complications including preterm birth and low birthweight. The physiological mechanisms that underpin these associations are poorly understood. We reviewed the existing research evidence to clarify the mechanisms that lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes in order to inform public health actions. A multi-disciplinary expert group met to review the existing evidence base and formulate a consensus regarding the physiological mechanisms that mediate the effect of high ambient temperature on pregnancy. A literature search was conducted in advance of the meeting to identify existing hypotheses and develop a series of questions and themes for discussion. Numerous hypotheses have been generated based on animal models and limited observational studies. There is growing evidence that pregnant women are able to appropriately thermoregulate; however, when exposed to extreme heat, there are a number of processes that may occur which could harm the mother or fetus including a reduction in placental blood flow, dehydration, and an inflammatory response that may trigger preterm birth. There is a lack of substantial evidence regarding the processes that cause heat exposure to harm pregnant women. Research is urgently needed to identify what causes the adverse outcomes in pregnancy related to high ambient temperatures so that the impact of climate change on pregnant women can be mitigated.more » « less