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Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude in response to global warming, but the magnitude of the forced response may vary considerably across distances of ~ 100 km or less. To examine the spatial variability of extreme precipitation and its sensitivity to global warming with high statistical certainty, we use a large (16,980 years), initial-condition ensemble of dynamically downscaled global climate model simulations. Under approximately 2 °C of global warming above a recent baseline period, we find large variability in the change (0 to > 60%) of the magnitude of very rare events (from 10 to 1000-year return period values of annual maxima of daily precipitation) across the western United States. Western (and predominantly windward) slopes of coastal ranges, the Cascades, and the Sierra Nevada typically show smaller increases in extreme precipitation than eastern slopes and bordering valleys and plateaus, but this pattern is less evident in the continental interior. Using the generalized extreme value shape parameter to characterize the tail of the precipitation distribution (light to heavy tail), we find that heavy tails dominate across the study region, but light tails are common on the western slopes of mountain ranges. The majority of the region shows a tendency toward heavier tails under warming, though some regions, such as plateaus of eastern Oregon and Washington, and the crest of the Sierra Nevada, show a lightening of tails. Spatially, changes in long return-period precipitation amounts appear to partially result from changes in the shape of the tail of the distribution. 

Climate change projections provided by global climate models (GCM) are generally too coarse for local and regional applications. Local and regional climate change impact studies therefore use downscaled datasets. While there are studies that evaluate downscaling methodologies, there is no study comparing the downscaled datasets that are actually distributed and used in climate change impact studies, and there is no guidance for selecting a published downscaled dataset. We compare five widely used statistically downscaled climate change projection datasets that cover the conterminous USA (CONUS): ClimateNA, LOCA, MACAv2-LIVNEH, MACAv2-METDATA, and NEX-DCP30. All of the datasets are derived from CMIP5 GCMs and are publicly distributed. The five datasets generally have good agreement across CONUS for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, although the agreement among the datasets vary greatly depending on the GCM, and there are many localized areas of sharp disagreements. Areas of higher dataset disagreement emerge over time, and their importance relative to differences among GCMs is comparable between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Dataset disagreement displays distinct regional patterns, with greater disagreement in △Tmax and △Tmin in the interior West and in the North, and disagreement in △P in California and the Southeast. LOCA and ClimateNA are often the outlier dataset, while the seasonal timing of ClimateNA is somewhat shifted from the others. To easily identify regional study areas with high disagreement, we generated maps of dataset disagreement aggregated to states, ecoregions, watersheds, and forests. Climate change assessment studies can use the maps to evaluate and select one or more downscaled datasets for their study area.

 

Extreme wind‐driven autumn wildfires are hazardous to life and property, due to their rapid rate of spread. Recent catastrophic autumn wildfires in the western United States co‐occurred with record‐ or near‐record autumn fire weather indices that are a byproduct of extreme fuel dryness and strong offshore dry winds. Here, we use a formal, probabilistic, extreme event attribution analysis to investigate the anthropogenic influence on extreme autumn fire weather in 2017 and 2018. We show that while present‐day anthropogenic climate change has slightly decreased the prevalence of strong offshore downslope winds, it has increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather indices by 40% in areas where recent autumn wind‐driven fires have occurred in northern California and Oregon. The increase was primarily through increased autumn fuel aridity and warmer temperatures during dry wind events. These findings illustrate that anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating autumn fire weather extremes that contribute to high‐impact catastrophic fires in populated regions of the western US.

 

Mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in ecosystem models are rapidly advancing, requiring advancements in model evaluation approaches. Here we quantify multiple aspects of model functional performance to evaluate improved process representations in ecosystem models. We compare semi‐empirical stomatal models with hydraulic constraints against more mechanistic representations of stomatal and hydraulic functioning at a semi‐arid pine site using a suite of metrics and analytical tools. We find that models generally perform similarly under unstressed conditions, but performance diverges under atmospheric and soil drought. The more empirical models better capture synergistic information flows between soil water potential and vapor pressure deficit to transpiration, while the more mechanistic models are overly deterministic. Although models can be parameterized to yield similar functional performance, alternate parameterizations could not overcome structural model constraints that underestimate the unique information contained in soil water potential about transpiration. Additionally, both multilayer canopy and big‐leaf models were unable to capture the magnitude of canopy temperature divergence from air temperature, and we demonstrate that errors in leaf temperature can propagate to considerable error in simulated transpiration. This study demonstrates the value of merging underutilized observational data streams with emerging analytical tools to characterize ecosystem function and discriminate among model process representations.