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In precision medicine, both predicting the disease susceptibility of an individual and forecasting its disease-free survival are areas of key research. Besides the classical epidemiological predictor variables, data from multiple (omic) platforms are increasingly available. To integrate this wealth of information, we propose new methodology to combine both cooperative learning, a recent approach to leverage the predictive power of several datasets, and polygenic hazard score models. Polygenic hazard score models provide a practitioner with a more differentiated view of the predicted disease-free survival than the one given by merely a point estimate, for instance computed with a polygenic risk score. Our aim is to leverage the advantages of cooperative learning for the computation of polygenic hazard score models via Cox’s proportional hazard model, thereby improving the prediction of the disease-free survival. In our experimental study, we apply our methodology to forecast the disease-free survival for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using three layers of data. One layer contains epidemiological variables such as sex, APOE (apolipoprotein E, a genetic risk factor for AD) status and 10 leading principal components. Another layer contains selected genomic loci, and the last layer contains methylation data for selected CpG sites. We demonstrate that the survival curves computed via cooperative learning yield an AUC of around $0.7$, above the state-of-the-art performance of its competitors. Importantly, the proposed methodology returns (1) a linear score that can be easily interpreted (in contrast to machine learning approaches), and (2) a weighting of the predictive power of the involved data layers, allowing for an assessment of the importance of each omic (or other) platform. Similarly to polygenic hazard score models, our methodology also allows one to compute individual survival curves for each patient.

 

Abstract Rationale: Genetic variation has a substantial contribution to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung function measurements. Heritability estimates using genome-wide genotyping data can be biased if analyses do not appropriately account for the nonuniform distribution of genetic effects across the allele frequency and linkage disequilibrium (LD) spectrum. In addition, the contribution of rare variants has been unclear. Objectives: We sought to assess the heritability of COPD and lung function using whole-genome sequence data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine program. Methods: Using the genome-based restricted maximum likelihood method, we partitioned the genome into bins based on minor allele frequency and LD scores and estimated heritability of COPD, FEV1% predicted and FEV1/FVC ratio in 11 051 European ancestry and 5853 African-American participants. Measurements and Main Results: In European ancestry participants, the estimated heritability of COPD, FEV1% predicted and FEV1/FVC ratio were 35.5%, 55.6% and 32.5%, of which 18.8%, 19.7%, 17.8% were from common variants, and 16.6%, 35.8%, and 14.6% were from rare variants. These estimates had wide confidence intervals, with common variants and some sets of rare variants showing a statistically significant contribution (P-value < 0.05). In African-Americans, common variant heritability was similar to European ancestry participants, but lower sample size precluded calculation of rare variant heritability. Conclusions: Our study provides updated and unbiased estimates of heritability for COPD and lung function, and suggests an important contribution of rare variants. Larger studies of more diverse ancestry will improve accuracy of these estimates.