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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2023
  2. A public deep and wide science enabling survey will be needed to discover these black holes and supernovae, and to cover the area large enough for cosmic infrared background to be reliably studied. This enabling survey will find a large number of other transients and enable supernova cosmology up to z 5.

    We present a new method of matching observations of Type-I (thermonuclear) X-ray bursts with models, comparing the predictions of a semi-analytic ignition model with X-ray observations of the accretion-powered millisecond pulsar SAX J1808.4–3658 in outburst. We used a Bayesian analysis approach to marginalize over the parameters of interest and determine parameters such as fuel composition, distance/anisotropy factors, neutron star mass, and neutron star radius. Our study includes a treatment of the system inclination effects, inferring that the rotation axis of the system is inclined $\left(69^{+4}_{-2}\right)^\circ$ from the observers line of sight, assuming a flat disc model. This method canmore »be applied to any accreting source that exhibits Type-I X-ray bursts. We find a hydrogen mass fraction of $0.57^{+0.13}_{-0.14}$ and CNO metallicity of $0.013^{+0.006}_{-0.004}$ for the accreted fuel is required by the model to match the observed burst energies, for a distance to the source of $3.3^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\, \mathrm{kpc}$. We infer a neutron star mass of $1.5^{+0.6}_{-0.3}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ and radius of $11.8^{+1.3}_{-0.9}\, \mathrm{km}$ for a surface gravity of $1.9^{+0.7}_{-0.4}\times 10^{14}\, \mathrm{cm}\, \mathrm{s}^{-2}$ for SAX J1808.4–3658.

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