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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2024
  2. The mesospheric polar vortex (MPV) plays a critical role in coupling the atmosphere-ionosphere system, so its accurate simulation is imperative for robust predictions of the thermosphere and ionosphere. While the stratospheric polar vortex is widely understood and characterized, the mesospheric polar vortex is much less well-known and observed, a short-coming that must be addressed to improve predictability of the ionosphere. The winter MPV facilitates top-down coupling via the communication of high energy particle precipitation effects from the thermosphere down to the stratosphere, though the details of this mechanism are poorly understood. Coupling from the bottom-up involves gravity waves (GWs), planetary waves (PWs), and tidal interactions that are distinctly different and important during weak vs. strong vortex states, and yet remain poorly understood as well. Moreover, generation and modulation of GWs by the large wind shears at the vortex edge contribute to the generation of traveling atmospheric disturbances and traveling ionospheric disturbances. Unfortunately, representation of the MPV is generally not accurate in state-of-the-art general circulation models, even when compared to the limited observational data available. Models substantially underestimate eastward momentum at the top of the MPV, which limits the ability to predict upward effects in the thermosphere. The zonal wind bias responsible for this missing momentum in models has been attributed to deficiencies in the treatment of GWs and to an inaccurate representation of the high-latitude dynamics. In the coming decade, simulations of the MPV must be improved. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 9, 2023
  3. Abstract

    We conducted simulations with a 4‐km resolution for Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The model data are used to study stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) generated by the hurricane and how they correlate with hurricane intensity. The simulation results show spiral GWs propagating upward and anticlockwise away from the hurricane center. GWs with vertical wavelengths up to 14 km are generated. We find that GW activity is more frequent and intense during hurricane intensification than during weakening, particularly for the most intense GW activity. There are significant correlations between the change of stratospheric GW intensity and hurricane intensity. Therefore, the emergence of intensive stratospheric GW activity may be considered a useful proxy for identifying hurricane intensification.

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