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  1. Extreme heat events induced by climate change present a growing risk to transit passenger comfort and health. To reduce exposure, agencies may consider changes to schedules that reduce headways on heavily trafficked bus routes serving vulnerable populations. This paper develops a schedule optimization model to minimize heat exposure and applies it to local bus services in Phoenix, Arizona, using agent-based simulation to inform travel demand and rider characteristics. Rerouting as little as 10% of a fleet is found to reduce network-wide exposure by as much as 35% when operating at maximum fleet capacity. Outcome improvements are notably characterized by diminishingmore »returns, owing to skewed ridership and the inverse relationship between fleet size and passenger wait time. Access to spare vehicles can also ensure significant reductions in exposure, especially under the most extreme temperatures. Rerouting, therefore, presents a low-cost, adaptable resilience strategy to protect riders from extreme heat exposure.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available February 22, 2023
  2. Abstract

    Exertional heat illness and stroke are serious concerns across youth and college sports programs. While some teams and governing bodies have adopted the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), few practitioners use measurements on the field of play; rather, they often rely on regionally modeled or estimated WBGT. However, urban development-induced heat and projected climate change increase exposure to heat. We examined WBGT levels between various athletic surfaces and regional weather stations under current and projected climates and in hot-humid and hot-dry weather regimes in the southwest U.S. in Tempe, Arizona. On-site sun-exposed WBGT data across five days (07:00–19:00 localmore »time) in June (dry) and August (humid) were collected over five athletic surfaces: rubber, artificial turf, clay, grass, and asphalt. Weather stations data were used to estimate regional WBGT (via the Liljegren model) and compared to on-site, observed WBGT. Finally, projected changes to WBGT were modeled under mid-century and late-century conditions. On-field WBGT observations were, on average, significantly higher than WBGT estimated from regional weather stations by 2.4°C–2.5°C, with mean on-field WBGT across both months of 28.52.76°C (versus 25.83.21°C regionally). However, between-athletic surface WBGT differences were largely insignificant. Significantly higher mean WBGTs occurred in August (30.12.35°C) versus June (26.92.19°C) across all venues; August conditions reached ‘limit activity’ or ‘cancellation’ thresholds for 6–8 hours and 2–4 hours of the day, respectively, for all sports venues. Climate projections show increased WBGTs across measurement locations, dependent on projection and period, with average August WBGT under the highest representative concentration pathway causing all-day activity cancellations. Practitioners are encouraged to use WBGT devices within the vicinity of the fields of play, yet should not rely on weather station estimations without corrections used. Heat concerns are expected to increase in the future, underlining the need for athlete monitoring, local cooling design strategies, and heat adaptation for safety.

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