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Abstract Deep and abyssal layer decadal temperature trends from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐2010s are mapped globally using Deep Argo and historical ship‐based Conductivity‐Temperature‐Depth (CTD) instrument data. Abyssal warming trends are widespread, with the strongest warming observed around Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation regions. The warming strength follows deep western boundary currents transporting abyssal waters north and decreases with distance from Antarctica. Abyssal cooling trends are found in the North Atlantic and eastern South Atlantic, regions primarily ventilated by North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Deep warming trends are prominent in the Southern Ocean south of about 50°S, the Greenland‐Iceland‐Norwegian (GIN) Seas and the western subpolar North Atlantic, with cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic and the subtropical and tropical western North Atlantic. Globally integrated decadal heat content trends of 21.6 (±6.5) TW in the deep and 12.9 (±1.8) TW in the abyssal layer are more certain than previous estimates.more » « less
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Abstract Antarctic Bottom Water has been warming in recent decades throughout most of the oceans and freshening in regions close to its Indian and Pacific sector sources. We assess warming rates on isobars in the eastern Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean using CTD data collected from shipboard surveys from the early 1990s through the late 2010s together with CTD data collected from Deep Argo floats deployed in the region in January 2023. We show cooling and freshening in the temperature‐salinity relation for water colder than ∼0.4°C. We further find a recent acceleration in the regional bottom water warming rate vertically averaged for pressures exceeding 3,700 dbar, with the 2017/18 to 2023/24 trend of 7.5 (±0.9) m°C yr−1nearly triple the 1992/95 to 2023/24 trend of 2.8 (±0.2) m°C yr−1. The 0.2°C isotherm descent rate for these same time periods nearly quadruples from 7.8 to 28 m yr−1.more » « less
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Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings and feedback. To date, the most precise measurements of EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while the quantification of EEI absolute magnitude is facilitated through heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% of heat uptake manifests as an increase in ocean heat content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from in situ and satellite observations, as well as from reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed the GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties and reconcile current knowledge of EEI magnitude, variability and trends. Here, 21 OHC datasets and ocean heat uptake (OHU) rates are intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 and 0.96 ± 0.08 W m−2(2005–2019), a spread that is slightly reduced when unequal ocean sampling is accounted for, and that is largely attributable to differing source data, mapping methods and quality control procedures. The rate of increase in OHU varies substantially between − 0.03 ± 0.13 (reanalysis product) and 1.1 ± 0.6 W m−2 dec−1(satellite product). Products that either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill in situ data-sparse regions based on additional physical knowledge (some reanalysis and hybrid products) tend to track radiometric EEI variability better than purely in situ-based OHC products. This paper also examines zonal trends in TOA radiative fluxes and the impact of data gaps on trend estimates. The GEWEX-EEI community aims to refine their assessment studies, to forge a path toward best practices, e.g., in uncertainty quantification, and to formulate recommendations for future activities.more » « less
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Abstract The global seasonal cycle of energy in Earth’s climate system is quantified using observations and reanalyses. After removing long-term trends, net energy entering and exiting the climate system at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) should agree with the sum of energy entering and exiting the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice over the course of an average year. Achieving such a balanced budget with observations has been challenging. Disagreements have been attributed previously to sparse observations in the high-latitude oceans. However, limiting the local vertical integration of new global ocean heat content estimates to the depth to which seasonal heat energy is stored, rather than integrating to 2000 m everywhere as done previously, allows closure of the global seasonal energy budget within statistical uncertainties. The seasonal cycle of energy storage is largest in the ocean, peaking in April because ocean area is largest in the Southern Hemisphere and the ocean’s thermal inertia causes a lag with respect to the austral summer solstice. Seasonal cycles in energy storage in the atmosphere and land are smaller, but peak in July and September, respectively, because there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and the land has more thermal inertia than the atmosphere. Global seasonal energy storage by ice is small, so the atmosphere and land partially offset ocean energy storage in the global integral, with their sum matching time-integrated net global TOA energy fluxes over the seasonal cycle within uncertainties, and both peaking in April.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Abstract. Internally consistent, quality-controlled (QC) data products play animportant role in promoting regional-to-global research efforts tounderstand societal vulnerabilities to ocean acidification (OA). However,there are currently no such data products for the coastal ocean, where mostof the OA-susceptible commercial and recreational fisheries and aquacultureindustries are located. In this collaborative effort, we compiled, quality-controlled, and synthesized 2 decades of discrete measurements ofinorganic carbon system parameters, oxygen, and nutrient chemistry data fromthe North American continental shelves to generate a data product calledthe Coastal Ocean Data Analysis Product in North America (CODAP-NA). Thereare few deep-water (> 1500 m) sampling locations in the currentdata product. As a result, crossover analyses, which rely on comparisonsbetween measurements on different cruises in the stable deep ocean, couldnot form the basis for cruise-to-cruise adjustments. For this reason, carewas taken in the selection of data sets to include in this initial releaseof CODAP-NA, and only data sets from laboratories with known qualityassurance practices were included. New consistency checks and outlierdetections were used to QC the data. Future releases of this CODAP-NAproduct will use this core data product as the basis for cruise-to-cruisecomparisons. We worked closely with the investigators who collected andmeasured these data during the QC process. This version (v2021) of theCODAP-NA is comprised of 3391 oceanographic profiles from 61 researchcruises covering all continental shelves of North America, from Alaska toMexico in the west and from Canada to the Caribbean in the east. Data for 14variables (temperature; salinity; dissolved oxygen content; dissolvedinorganic carbon content; total alkalinity; pH on total scale; carbonateion content; fugacity of carbon dioxide; and substance contents of silicate,phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, nitrate plus nitrite, and ammonium) have beensubjected to extensive QC. CODAP-NA is available as a merged data product(Excel, CSV, MATLAB, and NetCDF; https://doi.org/10.25921/531n-c230,https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0219960.html, last access: 15 May 2021)(Jiang et al., 2021a). The original cruise data have also been updated withdata providers' consent and summarized in a table with links to NOAA'sNational Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) archives(https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-acidification-data-stewardship-oads/synthesis/NAcruises.html).more » « less
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Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat hasaccumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land,the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Reportby Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results inunprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverseimpacts for ecosystems and human systems. The Earth heat inventory providesa measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifyinghow much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat isstored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulateheat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to aheating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority,about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 %on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for meltingthe cryosphere. Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to0.76±0.2 W m−2. The Earth energy imbalance is the mostfundamental global climate indicator that the scientific community and thepublic can use as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task ofbringing anthropogenic climate change under control. Moreover, thisindicator is highly complementary to other established ones like global meansurface temperature as it represents a robust measure of the rate of climatechange and its future commitment. We call for an implementation of theEarth energy imbalance into the Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based onbest available science. The Earth heat inventory in this study, updated fromvon Schuckmann et al. (2020), is underpinned by worldwide multidisciplinarycollaboration and demonstrates the critical importance of concertedinternational efforts for climate change monitoring and community-basedrecommendations and we also call for urgently needed actions for enablingcontinuity, archiving, rescuing, and calibrating efforts to assure improvedand long-term monitoring capacity of the global climate observing system. The data for the Earth heat inventory are publicly available, and more details are provided in Table 4.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance atthe top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain ofthe Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat isdistributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warmingocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and lossof grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society.This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concertedinternational effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents anupdated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimatesof heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gainover the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ,which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2.Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reportedfor the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods inthe upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 %(5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting ofgrounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Ourresults also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEIamounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization ofclimate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the ParisAgreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero toachieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in theatmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heatradiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energybalance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that thescientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how wellthe world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, andwe call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based onbest available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertaintiesin the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance ofthe current global climate observing system, its extension into areas ofgaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework forconcerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory aspresented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOIhttps://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2(von Schuckmann et al., 2020).more » « less
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