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Abstract We propose an analytic dual-cone accretion model for horizon-scale images of the cores of low-luminosity active galactic nuclei, including those observed by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). Our model is of synchrotron emission from an axisymmetric, magnetized plasma, constrained to flow within two oppositely oriented cones that are aligned with the black hole’s spin axis. We show this model can accurately reproduce images of a variety of time-averaged general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations and that it accurately recovers the black hole spin, orientation, emission scale height, peak emission radius, and fluid flow direction from these simulations within a Bayesian inference framework using radio interferometric data. We show that nontrivial topologies in the images of relativistic accretion flows around black holes can result in nontrivial multimodal solutions when applied to observations with a sparse array, such as the EHT 2017 observations of M87*. The presence of these degeneracies underscores the importance of employing Bayesian techniques to adequately sample the posterior space for the interpretation of EHT measurements. We fit our model to the EHT observations of M87* and find a 95% highest posterior density interval for the mass-to-distance ratio ofθ_g∈ (2.84, 3.75)μas, and give an inclination ofθ_o∈ (11°, 24°). These new measurements are consistent with mass measurements from the EHT and stellar dynamical estimates and with the spin axis inclination inferred from properties of the M87* jet. 

Abstract Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the horizon-scale emission around the Galactic center supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) favor accretion flow models with a jet component. However, this jet has not been conclusively detected. Using the “best-bet” models of Sgr A* from the EHT Collaboration, we assess whether this nondetection is expected for current facilities and explore the prospects of detecting a jet with very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) at four frequencies: 86, 115, 230, and 345 GHz. We produce synthetic image reconstructions for current and next-generation VLBI arrays at these frequencies that include the effects of interstellar scattering, optical depth, and time variability. We find that no existing VLBI arrays are expected to detect the jet in these best-bet models, consistent with observations to date. We show that next-generation VLBI arrays at 86 and 115 GHz—in particular, the EHT after upgrades through the ngEHT program and the ngVLA—successfully capture the jet in our tests due to improvements in instrument sensitivity and (u,v) coverage at spatial scales critical to jet detection. These results highlight the potential of enhanced VLBI capabilities in the coming decade to reveal the crucial properties of Sgr A* and its interaction with the Galactic center environment. 

Abstract Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) provides the highest-resolution images in astronomy. The sharpest resolution is nominally achieved at the highest frequencies, but as the observing frequency increases, so too does the atmospheric contribution to the system noise, degrading the sensitivity of the array and hampering detection. In this paper, we explore the limits of high-frequency VLBI observations usingngehtsim, a new tool for generating realistic synthetic data.ngehtsimuses detailed historical atmospheric models to simulate observing conditions, and it employs heuristic visibility detection criteria that emulate single- and multifrequency VLBI calibration strategies. We demonstrate the fidelity ofngehtsim’spredictions using a comparison with existing 230 GHz data taken by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), and we simulate the expected performance of EHT observations at 345 GHz. Though the EHT achieves a nearly 100% detection rate at 230 GHz, our simulations indicate that it should expect substantially poorer performance at 345 GHz; in particular, observations of M87* at 345 GHz are predicted to achieve detection rates of ≲20% that may preclude imaging. Increasing the array sensitivity through wider bandwidths and/or longer integration times—as enabled through, e.g., the simultaneous multifrequency upgrades envisioned for the next-generation EHT—can improve the 345 GHz prospects and yield detection levels that are comparable to those at 230 GHz. M87* and Sgr A* observations carried out in the atmospheric window around 460 GHz could expect to regularly achieve multiple detections on long baselines, but analogous observations at 690 and 875 GHz consistently obtain almost no detections at all. 

Abstract The first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) detections at 870μm wavelength (345 GHz frequency) are reported, achieving the highest diffraction-limited angular resolution yet obtained from the surface of the Earth and the highest-frequency example of the VLBI technique to date. These include strong detections for multiple sources observed on intercontinental baselines between telescopes in Chile, Hawaii, and Spain, obtained during observations in 2018 October. The longest-baseline detections approach 11 Gλ, corresponding to an angular resolution, or fringe spacing, of 19μas. The Allan deviation of the visibility phase at 870μm is comparable to that at 1.3 mm on the relevant integration timescales between 2 and 100 s. The detections confirm that the sensitivity and signal chain stability of stations in the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array are suitable for VLBI observations at 870μm. Operation at this short wavelength, combined with anticipated enhancements of the EHT, will lead to a unique high angular resolution instrument for black hole studies, capable of resolving the event horizons of supermassive black holes in both space and time.