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Life-history trade-offs can mediate population declines following perturbations, and early reproduction should be favoured when adult survival is impacted more than juvenile survival. In Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii), following the emergence of a transmissible cancer that caused steep population declines, females started to breed precocially (i.e. at age 1 instead of 2 years old). Here, using 18 years of mark–recapture data from a site where the disease was present (Freycinet Peninsula, Tasmania, Australia), we tested whether: (i) the probability of 1-yea-old females breeding continued to increase over time; (ii) there was a relationship between body size and breeding success for either 1-year-old or adult females; and (iii) there was inbreeding depression in breeding success for either age category. We show that the probability of 1-year-old females breeding did not increase between 2003 and 2021, and that the proportion of precocially breeding females remains at around 40%. We also show that there was no effect of skeletal body size on the probability of breeding, but heavier females were always more likely to breed. Finally, we found no evidence for inbreeding depression in breeding success. We discuss our results in the context of possible constraints by way of limitations to growth in the offspring of precocially breeding females. 

Abstract: We collected data to assess how disease-induced declines of an apex scavenger, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), affected carrion use by invertebrate scavengers. We manipulated devil access to pademelon (Thylogale billardierii) carcasses across a gradient of devil density from east to west Tasmania and measured carcass use by invertebrates. We used trap capture rates to estimate abundance of adult and larval carrion beetles (Ptomaphila lacrymosa) and blow fly larvae (Calliphoridae). 

Abstract Tasmanian eucalypt forests are among the most carbon‐dense in the world, but projected climate change could destabilize this critical carbon sink. While the impact of abiotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon dynamics have received considerable attention, biotic factors such as the input of animal scat are less understood. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii)—an osteophageous scavenger that can ingest and solubilize nutrients locked in bone material—may subsidize plant and microbial productivity by concentrating bioavailable nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) in scat latrines. However, dramatic declines in devil population densities, driven by the spread of a transmissible cancer, may have underappreciated consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and forest productivity by altering nutrient cycling. Here, we fuse experimental data and modeling to quantify and predict future changes to forest productivity and SOC under various climate and scat‐quality futures. We find that devil scat significantly increases concentrations of nitrogen, ammonium, phosphorus, and phosphate in the soil and shifts soil microbial communities toward those dominated byr‐selected (e.g., fast‐growing) phyla. Further, under expected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, devil scat inputs are projected to increase above‐ and below‐ground net primary productivity and microbial biomass carbon through 2100. In contrast, when devil scat is replaced by lower‐quality scat (e.g., from non‐osteophageous scavengers and herbivores), forest carbon pools are likely to increase more slowly, or in some cases, decline. Together, our results suggest often overlooked biotic factors will interact with climate change to drive current and future carbon pool dynamics in Tasmanian forests. 

Abstract Emerging infectious diseases threaten natural populations, and data-driven modeling is critical for predicting population dynamics. Despite the importance of integrating ecology and evolution in models of host–pathogen dynamics, there are few wild populations for which long-term ecological datasets have been coupled with genome-scale data. Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations have declined range wide due to devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), a fatal transmissible cancer. Although early ecological models predicted imminent devil extinction, diseased devil populations persist at low densities, and recent ecological models predict long-term devil persistence. Substantial evidence supports the evolution of both devils and DFTD, suggesting coevolution may also influence continued devil persistence. Thus, we developed an individual-based, eco-evolutionary model of devil–DFTD coevolution parameterized with nearly 2 decades of devil demography, DFTD epidemiology, and genome-wide association studies. We characterized potential devil–DFTD coevolutionary outcomes and predicted the effects of coevolution on devil persistence and devil–DFTD coexistence. We found a high probability of devil persistence over 50 devil generations (100 years) and a higher likelihood of devil–DFTD coexistence, with greater devil recovery than predicted by previous ecological models. These novel results add to growing evidence for long-term devil persistence and highlight the importance of eco-evolutionary modeling for emerging infectious diseases. 

Abstract Herein, we rebut the critique of Patton et al. (2020), entitled, “No evidence that a transmissible cancer has shifted from emergence to endemism”, by Stammnitz et al. (2024). First and foremost, the authors do not conduct any phylogenetic or epidemiological analyses to rebut the inferences from the main results of the Patton et al. (2020) article, rendering the title of their rebuttal without evidence or merit. Additionally, Stammnitz et al. (2024) present a phylogenetic tree based on only 32 copy number variants (not typically used in phylogenetic analyses and evolve in a completely different way than DNA sequences) to “rebut” our tree that was inferred from 436.1 kb of sequence data and nearly two orders of magnitude more parsimony-informative sites (2520 SNPs). As such it is not surprising that their phylogeny did not have a similar branching pattern to ours, given that support for each branch of their tree was weak and the essentially formed a polytomy. That is, one could rotate their resulting tree in any direction and by nature, it would not match ours. While the authors are correct that we used suboptimal filtering of our raw whole genome sequencing data, re-analyses of the data with 30X coverage, as suggested, resulted in a mutation rate similar to that reported in Stammnitz et al. (2024). Most importantly, when we re-analyzed our data, as well as Stammnitz et al.’s own data, the results of the Patton et al. (2020) article are supported with both datasets. That is, the effective transmission rate of DFTD has transitioned over time to approach one, suggesting endemism; and, the spread of DFTD is rapid and omnidirectional despite the observed east-to-west wave of spread. Overall, Stammnitz et al. (2024) not only fail to provide evidence to contradict the findings of Patton et al. (2020), but rather help support the results with their own data. 

Abstract Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) not only cause catastrophic declines in wildlife populations but also generate selective pressures that may result in rapid evolutionary responses. One such EID is devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) in the Tasmanian devil. DFTD is almost always fatal and has reduced the average lifespan of individuals by around 2 years, likely causing strong selection for traits that reduce susceptibility to the disease, but population decline has also left Tasmanian devils vulnerable to inbreeding depression. We analysed 22 years of data from an ongoing study of a population of Tasmanian devils on Freycinet Peninsula, Tasmania, to (1) identify whether DFTD may be causing selection on body size, by estimating phenotypic and genetic correlations between DFTD and size traits, (2) estimate the additive genetic variance of susceptibility to DFTD, and (3) investigate whether size traits or susceptibility to DFTD were under inbreeding depression. We found a positive phenotypic relationship between head width and susceptibility to DFTD, but this was not underpinned by a genetic correlation. Conversely, we found a negative phenotypic relationship between body weight and susceptibility to DFTD, and there was evidence for a negative genetic correlation between susceptibility to DFTD and body weight. There was additive genetic variance in susceptibility to DFTD, head width and body weight, but there was no evidence for inbreeding depression in any of these traits. These results suggest that Tasmanian devils have the potential to respond adaptively to DFTD, although the realised evolutionary response will critically further depend on the evolution of DFTD itself. 

Abstract Understanding age structure in populations is foundational for ecological study, yet ascertaining the age of individuals in the wild can be problematic. Methods typically rely on the prior determination of a relationship between age and some morphological measurement specific to the species or animal group under investigation.We present a novel method to incorporate multiple measures of animal size and development to estimate age, using Bayesian parallel regression to integrate multiple regression relationships into predictions.We apply the method to Tasmanian devils, a carnivorous marsupial that is threatened by a transmissible cancer. We estimate devil age based on measures of mass, head width, canine over‐eruption and molar characteristics.Practical implication. The method provides a flexible framework with potential application to a range of species; however, the method is best suited to capture–mark–recapture style studies where repeated measures data have been collected for individuals across multiple points in time. 

Abstract Forest disturbance has well-characterized effects on soil microbial communities in tropical and northern hemisphere ecosystems, but little is known regarding effects of disturbance in temperate forests of the southern hemisphere. To address this question, we collected soils from intact and degraded Eucalyptus forests along an east–west transect across Tasmania, Australia, and characterized prokaryotic and fungal communities using amplicon sequencing. Forest degradation altered soil microbial community composition and function, with consistent patterns across soil horizons and regions of Tasmania. Responses of prokaryotic communities included decreased relative abundance of Acidobacteriota, nitrifying archaea, and methane-oxidizing prokaryotes in the degraded forest sites, while fungal responses included decreased relative abundance of some saprotrophic taxa (e.g. litter saprotrophs). Forest degradation also reduced network connectivity in prokaryotic communities and increased the importance of dispersal limitation in assembling both prokaryotic and fungal communities, suggesting recolonization dynamics drive microbial composition following disturbance. Further, changes in microbial functional groups reflected changes in soil chemical properties—reductions in nitrifying microorganisms corresponded with reduced NO3-N pools in the degraded soils. Overall, our results show that soil microbiota are highly responsive to forest degradation in eucalypt forests and demonstrate that microbial responses to degradation will drive changes in key forest ecosystem functions.