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Disease dynamics, human mobility, and public policies co-evolve during a pandemic such as COVID-19. Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns are crucial for understanding and forecasting COVID- 19 dynamics. We introduce a novel graph-based neural network(GNN) to incorporate global aggregated mobility flows for a better understanding of the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 dynamics as well as better forecasting of disease dynamics. We propose a recurrent message passing graph neural network that embeds spatio-temporal disease dynamics and human mobility dynamics for daily state-level new confirmed cases forecasting. This work represents one of the early papers on the use of GNNs to forecast COVID-19 incidence dynamics and our methods are competitive to existing methods. We show that the spatial and temporal dynamic mobility graph leveraged by the graph neural network enables better long-term forecasting performance compared to baselines.

A bstract A search is presented for a heavy W′ boson resonance decaying to a B or T vector-like quark and a t or a b quark, respectively. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collisions collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Both decay channels result in a signature with a t quark, a Higgs or Z boson, and a b quark, each produced with a significant Lorentz boost. The all-hadronic decays of the Higgs or Z boson and of the t quark are selected using jet substructure techniques to reduce standard model backgrounds, resulting in a distinct three-jet W′ boson decay signature. No significant deviation in data with respect to the standard model background prediction is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the product of the W′ boson cross section and the final state branching fraction. A W′ boson with a mass below 3.1 TeV is excluded, given the benchmark model assumption of democratic branching fractions. In addition, limits are set based on generalizations of these assumptions. These are the most sensitive limits to datemore »for this final state.« less

Abstract A new algorithm is presented to discriminate reconstructed hadronic decays of tau leptons ( τ h ) that originate from genuine tau leptons in the CMS detector against τ h candidates that originate from quark or gluon jets, electrons, or muons. The algorithm inputs information from all reconstructed particles in the vicinity of a τ h candidate and employs a deep neural network with convolutional layers to efficiently process the inputs. This algorithm leads to a significantly improved performance compared with the previously used one. For example, the efficiency for a genuine τ h to pass the discriminator against jets increases by 10–30% for a given efficiency for quark and gluon jets. Furthermore, a more efficient τ h reconstruction is introduced that incorporates additional hadronic decay modes. The superior performance of the new algorithm to discriminate against jets, electrons, and muons and the improved τ h reconstruction method are validated with LHC proton-proton collision data at √ s = 13 TeV.