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Human mobility data science using trajectories or check-ins of individuals has many applications. Recently, we have seen a plethora of research efforts that tackle these applications. However, research progress in this field is limited by a lack of large and representative datasets. The largest and most commonly used dataset of individual human trajectories captures fewer than 200 individuals, while datasets of individual human check-ins capture fewer than 100 check-ins per city per day. Thus, it is not clear if findings from the human mobility data science community would generalize to large populations. Since obtaining massive, representative, and individual-level human mobility data is hard to come by due to privacy considerations, the vision of this work is to embrace the use of data generated by large-scale socially realistic microsimulations. Informed by both real data and leveraging social and behavioral theories, massive spatially explicit microsimulations may allow us to simulate entire megacities at the person level. The simulated worlds, which do not capture any identifiable personal information, allow us to perform “in silico” experiments using the simulated world as a sandbox in which we have perfect information and perfect control without jeopardizing the privacy of any actual individual. In silico experiments have become commonplace in other scientific domains such as chemistry and biology, permitting experiments that foster the understanding of concepts without any harm to individuals. This work describes challenges and opportunities for leveraging massive and realistic simulated alternate worlds for in silico human mobility data science. 

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This book chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas. 

With the onset of COVID-19 and the resulting shelter in place guidelines combined with remote working practices, human mobility in 2020 has been dramatically impacted. Existing studies typically examine whether mobility in specific localities increases or decreases at specific points in time and relate these changes to certain pandemic and policy events. However, a more comprehensive analysis of mobility change over time is needed. In this paper, we study mobility change in the US through a five-step process using mobility footprint data. (Step 1) Propose the Delta Time Spent in Public Places (ΔTSPP) as a measure to quantify daily changes in mobility for each US county from 2019-2020. (Step 2) Conduct Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the ΔTSPP time series of each county to lower-dimensional latent components of change in mobility. (Step 3) Conduct clustering analysis to find counties that exhibit similar latent components. (Step 4) Investigate local and global spatial autocorrelation for each component. (Step 5) Conduct correlation analysis to investigate how various population characteristics and behavior correlate with mobility patterns. Results show that by describing each county as a linear combination of the three latent components, we can explain 59% of the variation in mobility trends across all US counties. Specifically, change in mobility in 2020 for US counties can be explained as a combination of three latent components: 1) long-term reduction in mobility, 2) no change in mobility, and 3) short-term reduction in mobility. Furthermore, we find that US counties that are geographically close are more likely to exhibit a similar change in mobility. Finally, we observe significant correlations between the three latent components of mobility change and various population characteristics, including political leaning, population, COVID-19 cases and deaths, and unemployment. We find that our analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of mobility change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Foot traffic is a business term to describe the number of customers that enter a point of interest (POI). This work aims to predict future foot traffic: the number of people from each census block group (CBG) that will visit each POI of a study region with potential applications in marketing and advertising. Existing techniques for spatiotemporal prediction of foot traffic use location-based social network data that suffer from sparsity, capturing only a handful of visits per day. This study utilizes highly granular foot traffic data from SafeGraph, a data company that collects mobility data regarding hundreds of millions of visits per day in the United States alone. Using this data, we explore solutions to predict weekly foot traffic data at the POI level. We propose a collaborative filtering approach using tensor factorization on the (POIs x CBGs x Weeks) data tensor. This approach provides us with a de-noised estimation of visits in previous weeks for all POI-CBG pairs. Using this tensor, we explore various time series prediction models: weekly rolling average, weighted weekly rolling average, univariate linear regression, polynomial regression, and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. Our results show that of all the prediction models, the collaborative filtering step consistently improves prediction results. We also found that a simple weighted average consistently performed better than the more sophisticated approaches. Given this abundance of foot traffic data, this result shows that we can improve the spatiotemporal prediction of foot traffic data by harnessing collaborative filtering. 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been various attempts to develop realistic models to both predict the spread of the disease and evaluate policy measures aimed at mitigation. Different models that operate under different parameters and assumptions produce radically different predictions, creating confusion among policy-makers and the general population and limiting the usefulness of the models. This newsletter article proposes a novel ensemble modeling approach that uses representative clustering to identify where existing model predictions of COVID-19 spread agree and unify these predictions into a smaller set of predictions. The proposed ensemble prediction approach is composed of the following stages: (1) the selection of the ensemble components, (2) the imputation of missing predictions for each component, and (3) representative clustering in application to time-series data to determine the degree of agreement between simulation predictions. The results of the proposed approach will produce a set of ensemble model predictions that identify where simulation results converge so that policy-makers and the general public are informed with more comprehensive predictions and the uncertainty among them. 

Agent-based models (ABM) play a prominent role in guiding critical decision-making and supporting the development of effective policies for better urban resilience and response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ABMs lack realistic representations of human mobility, a key process that leads to physical interaction and subsequent spread of disease. Therefore, we propose the application of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a topic modeling technique, to foot-traffic data to develop a realistic model of human mobility in an ABM that simulates the spread of COVID-19. In our novel approach, LDA treats POIs as "words" and agent home census block groups (CBGs) as "documents" to extract "topics" of POIs that frequently appear together in CBG visits. These topics allow us to simulate agent mobility based on the LDA topic distribution of their home CBG. We compare the LDA based mobility model with competitor approaches including a naive mobility model that assumes visits to POIs are random. We find that the naive mobility model is unable to facilitate the spread of COVID-19 at all. Using the LDA informed mobility model, we simulate the spread of COVID-19 and test the effect of changes to the number of topics, various parameters, and public health interventions. By examining the simulated number of cases over time, we find that the number of topics does indeed impact disease spread dynamics, but only in terms of the outbreak's timing. Further analysis of simulation results is needed to better understand the impact of topics on simulated COVID-19 spread. This study contributes to strengthening human mobility representations in ABMs of disease spread. 

Location-based social networks (LBSNs) have been studied extensively in recent years. However, utilizing real-world LBSN data sets yields several weaknesses: sparse and small data sets, privacy concerns, and a lack of authoritative ground-truth. To overcome these weaknesses, we leverage a large-scale LBSN simulation to create a framework to simulate human behavior and to create synthetic but realistic LBSN data based on human patterns of life. Such data not only captures the location of users over time but also their interactions via social networks. Patterns of life are simulated by giving agents (i.e., people) an array of “needs” that they aim to satisfy, e.g., agents go home when they are tired, to restaurants when they are hungry, to work to cover their financial needs, and to recreational sites to meet friends and satisfy their social needs. While existing real-world LBSN data sets are trivially small, the proposed framework provides a source for massive LBSN benchmark data that closely mimics the real-world. As such, it allows us to capture 100% of the (simulated) population without any data uncertainty, privacy-related concerns, or incompleteness. It allows researchers to see the (simulated) world through the lens of an omniscient entity having perfect data. Our framework is made available to the community. In addition, we provide a series of simulated benchmark LBSN data sets using different synthetic towns and real-world urban environments obtained from OpenStreetMap. The simulation software and data sets, which comprise gigabytes of spatio-temporal and temporal social network data, are made available to the research community.