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Abstract. Clouds exert strong influences on surface energy budgets and climate projections. Yet, cloud physics are complex and often incompletely represented in models. For example, supercooled liquid cloud optics parameterizations are rarely incorporated into the radiative transfer models used for climate projections. Prior work has shown that incorporating these optics in longwave radiation calculations increases Arctic downwelling longwave fluxes by as much as 1.7 W m−2. Here we examine whether implementing supercooled liquid water optics in climate models for longwave radiation impacts global radiative fluxes and climate. We use a novel methodology that uses a hierarchy of dynamical constraints on the sequence of atmospheric states. In the model experiments with stronger dynamical constraints, we find that the supercooled liquid water optics increase Arctic downwelling longwave by 2.17–3.24 W m−2. In contrast, these optics increased Arctic downwelling longwave radiation by 0.36–0.68 W m−2 with dynamically unconstrained model experiments. While the optics impact was greater within the dynamically constrained models than in dynamically unconstrained models, the dynamically constrained models are also more idealized than the unconstrained models. In summary, we found a signal from supercooled liquid water optics; the influence of these optics for longwave radiation is small compared to the modeled longwave radiation variability. More broadly, this work demonstrates a novel framework for assessing the climate importance of a physics change. 

Abstract Since the 1980s, observations show the Arctic surface has warmed four times more than the global mean. Over the Arctic Ocean, this recent large warming is connected to sea ice loss. While earth system models are useful tools for prediction, exact replication of observed Arctic warming and sea ice loss is not expected in freely-evolving models because of internal climate variability. Previous studies have shown that historical hindcasts with model winds nudged to reanalysis can reproduce recent Arctic warming and sea ice loss. However, the influence of observed winds on these recent Arctic changes in absence of anthropogenic forcing has not been assessed. Here, we show that nudging to recent (1980–2023) observed winds alone in a pre-industrial model experiment does not reproduce the magnitude of observed warming and sea ice extent loss. This means that the large-scale winds are not the primary driver of recently observed large Arctic trends. Yet, the winds do partially reproduce the interannual, seasonal, and spatial variability, especially in spring. We also show that in a pre-industrial climate simulation, these results are largely independent of mean state sea ice thickness. In short, the observed winds drive part of the Arctic temperature and sea ice variability but not long-term trends. 

Traditional feedback analyses, which assume that individual climate feedback mechanisms act independently and add linearly, suggest that clouds do not contribute to Arctic amplification. However, feedback locking experiments, in which the cloud feedback is disabled, suggest that clouds, particularly outside of the Arctic, do contribute to Arctic amplification. Here, we reconcile these two perspectives by introducing a framework that quantifies the interactions between radiative feedbacks, radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, and atmospheric heat transport. We show that including the cloud feedback in a comprehensive climate model can result in Arctic amplification because of interactions with other radiative feedbacks. The surface temperature change associated with including the cloud feedback is amplified in the Arctic by the surface-albedo, Planck, and lapse-rate feedbacks. A moist energy balance model with a locked cloud feedback exhibits similar behavior as the comprehensive climate model with a disabled cloud feedback and further indicates that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes to Arctic amplification via feedback interactions. Feedback locking in the moist energy balance model also suggests that the mid-latitude cloud feedback contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification across comprehensive climate models. These results imply that constraining the mid-latitude cloud feedback will greatly reduce the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. Furthermore, these results highlight a previously unrecognized non-local pathway for Arctic amplification. 

Abstract. Cloud processes constitute one of the key uncertainties for climate change projections. The fourth iteration of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project, CFMIP4, contributes to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), by providing a set of global climate model experiments aiming to enhance our understanding of clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity, thereby informing improved projections of future climate change. CFMIP4 targets four knowledge gaps: (1) Physical mechanisms of cloud feedback and adjustment; (2) Dependence of cloud feedback and adjustment on climate base state and on the nature of the forcing; (3) Coupled mechanisms of the sea-surface temperature pattern effect; and (4) Coupling of clouds with circulation and precipitation. CFMIP4 contributes four CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track experiments that are central to the quantification of climate feedback and sensitivity in past, present and future climates, essential for process understanding and model evaluation. Furthermore, CFMIP4 supports the joint analysis of models and observations through a data request that includes process and satellite simulator output. 

Abstract The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic. 

Abstract In contrast to surface greenhouse warming, surface greenhouse cooling has been less explored, especially on multi-century timescales. Here, we assess the processes controlling the pacing and magnitude of the multi-century surface temperature response to instantaneously doubling and halving atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in a modern global coupled climate model. Over the first decades, surface greenhouse warming is larger and faster than surface greenhouse cooling both globally and at high northern latitudes (45–90° N). Yet, this initial multi-decadal response difference does not persist. After year 150, additional surface warming is negligible, but surface cooling and sea ice expansion continues. Notably, the equilibration timescale for high northern latitude surface cooling (∼437 years) is more than double the equivalent timescale for warming. The high northern latitude responses differ most at the sea ice edge. Under greenhouse cooling, the sea ice edge slowly creeps southward into the mid-latitude oceans amplified by positive lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks. While greenhouse warming and sea ice loss at high northern latitudes occurs on multi-decadal timescales, greenhouse cooling and sea ice expansion occurs on multi-century timescales. Overall, this work shows the importance of multi-century timescales and sea ice processes for understanding high northern latitude climate responses. 

Abstract The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warming is poorly understood. Here, a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a Hadley Cell parameterization is used to isolate the influence of climate feedbacks on changes in zonal‐mean precipitation‐minus‐evaporation (P − E) under greenhouse‐gas forcing. It is shown that cloud feedbacks act to narrow bands of tropicalP − Eand increaseP − Ein the deep tropics. The surface‐albedo feedback shifts the location of maximum tropicalP − Eand increasesP − Ein the polar regions. The intermodel spread in theP − Echanges associated with feedbacks arises mainly from cloud feedbacks, with the lapse‐rate and surface‐albedo feedbacks playing important roles in the polar regions. TheP − Echange associated with cloud feedback locking in the MEBM is similar to that of a climate model with inactive cloud feedbacks. This work highlights the unique role that climate feedbacks play in causing deviations from the “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” paradigm. 

Abstract. Climate simulation uncertainties arise from internal variability, model structure, and external forcings. Model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP) and single-model large ensembles have provided insight into uncertainty sources. Under the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project, large ensembles have been performed for CESM2 (a CMIP6-era model) and CESM1 (a CMIP5-era model). We refer to these as CESM2-LE and CESM1-LE. The external forcing used in these simulations has changed to be consistent with their CMIP generation. As a result, differences between CESM2-LE and CESM1-LE ensemble means arise from changes in both model structure and forcing. Here we present new ensemble simulations which allow us to separate the influences of these model structural and forcing differences. Our new CESM2 simulations are run with CMIP5 forcings equivalent to those used in the CESM1-LE. We find a strong influence of historical forcing uncertainty due to aerosol effects on simulated climate. For the historical period, forcing drives reduced global warming and ocean heat uptake in CESM2-LE relative to CESM1-LE that is counteracted by the influence of model structure. The influence of the model structure and forcing vary across the globe, and the Arctic exhibits a distinct signal that contrasts with the global mean. For the 21st century, the importance of scenario forcing differences (SSP3–7.0 for CESM2-LE and RCP8.5 for CESM1-LE) is evident. The new simulations presented here allow us to diagnose the influence of model structure on 21st century change, despite large scenario forcing differences, revealing that differences in the meridional distribution of warming are caused by model structure. Feedback analysis reveals that clouds and their impact on shortwave radiation explain many of these structural differences between CESM2 and CESM1. In the Arctic, albedo changes control transient climate evolution differences due to structural differences between CESM2 and CESM1.