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Abstract Massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) form through galaxy mergers and are among the loudest sources of gravitational waves (GWs) in the Universe. If the binary inspiral time is long, a subsequent galaxy merger can introduce a third black hole, forming a triple system. In the Illustris cosmological simulation, 6% of MBHBs form such triples at parsec scales, where strong three-body interactions are likely. We apply results from numerical simulations of triple massive black holes (MBHs) to strong triples identified in Illustris to assess their impact on MBH mergers and recoils. We find that triple interactions raise the merger fraction, reduce the median merger timescales in strong triple systems, and increase the overall merger fraction slightly (by 4%). Furthermore, massive major mergers are over three times more likely to be facilitated by strong triple interactions than mergers in general. We also compare GW recoil kicks to gravitational slingshot kicks from triple interactions. Both mechanisms can produce kicks exceeding host escape speeds, ejecting MBHs and producing wandering or offset black holes. Although slingshots yield the kicks with the highest velocity, GW recoils dominate the ejected population when assuming random MBH spin orientations. Under this assumption, ejections from GW recoil and slingshot kicks reduce the total number of mergers by 6%. Our results highlight the impact of strong triple dynamics and GW recoils on MBH evolution and support their inclusion in cosmological simulations. 

ABSTRACT We study fast nuclear winds driven by active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback in merging galaxies using high-resolution hydrodynamics simulations. We use Stars and MUltiphase Gas in GaLaxiEs (smuggle) to explicitly model the multiphase interstellar medium (ISM) and employ subgrid dynamical friction for massive black holes (BHs). Furthermore, we use a super-Lagrangian refinement scheme to resolve AGN feedback coupling to the ISM at $$\sim 10-100\,$$ pc scales. By comparison between merging and isolated galaxies, with and without AGN feedback, we identify trends in the complex interplay between dynamics, BH fuelling and feedback, and star formation and feedback. We consider three galaxy types: Milky Way analogues, Sbc-type galaxies, and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) analogues. The synergy between AGN feedback and merger dynamics is strongest in the Milky Way-like mergers, where the AGN winds are energetically dominant and entrain more gas when the initially thin discs become thick and amorphous during the merger. In contrast, the merger of thicker, vigorously star-forming Sbc galaxies is not strongly impacted by AGN feedback until star formation declines in the post-merger phase. Finally, while the subgrid dynamical friction prescription effectively retains BHs in galactic nuclei during more massive mergers, the clumpy multiphase ISM induces significant wandering of low-mass BHs $$\mathrm{(< 10^5\, M_\odot)}$$ in the shallow potentials of the SMC-like galaxies. These low-mass BHs wander at distances $$\gtrsim 2$$ kpc from the galactic centre, yielding negligible BH accretion and feedback. This has implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna event rates and present a further challenge to understanding the rapid growth of $$z\sim 7-10$$ quasars discovered by James Webb Space Telescope. 

Abstract Pulsar timing arrays recently found evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB), likely the stochastic overlap of gravitational waves from many supermassive black hole binaries. Anticipating a continuous gravitational-wave (CW) detection from a single binary soon to follow, we examine how well current Bayesian methods can detect CWs and characterize their binary properties by modeling the response of the NANOGrav 15 yr pulsar timing array to simulated binary populations. We run Markov Chain Monte Carlo searches for CWs in these data sets and compare them to quicker detection statistics including the optimal signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), matched filter detection statistic, and reduced log-likelihood ratio between the signal and noise models calculated at the injected parameters. The latter is the best proxy for Bayesian detection fractions, corresponding to a 50% detection fraction (by Bayes factors >10 favoring a CW detection over noise-only model) at an S/N = 4.6. Source confusion between the GWB and a CW, or between multiple CWs, can cause false detections and unexpected dismissals. Fifty-three percent of realistic binary populations consistent with the recently observed GWB have successful CW detections. Additionally, 82% of these CWs are in the fourth or fifth frequency bin of the 16.03 yr data set (6.9 and 10.8 nHz), with 95th percentile regions spanning 4–12 nHz frequencies, 0.7–20 × 10⁹M_⊙chirp masses, 60 Mpc–8 Gpc luminosity distances, and 18–13,000 deg²68% confidence localization areas. These successful detections often poorly recover the chirp mass, with only 29% identifying the chirp mass accurately to within 1 dex with a 68% posterior width also narrower than 1 dex. 

Abstract Recent pulsar timing array (PTA) observations detected nanohertz gravitational waves, likely originating from massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). The detected amplitude is unexpectedly higher than inferred from the electromagnetic measurements. We present new gravitational-wave background (GWB) results from the ASTRID simulation. Its large volume and on-the-fly dynamics for massive black holes (MBHs) provide new insights into the MBHB population, offering a more accurate assessment of its contribution to the observed GWB. ASTRID predicts a GWB from MBHBs ofh_c = 2.8 × 10⁻¹⁵, or ∼45% of the observed amplitude at ∼4 nHz with a slope consistent withf^−2/3, andh_c = 2.5 × 10⁻¹⁶withh_c ∝ f^−1.6at ∼30 nHz. These predictions remain below current PTA constraints but align with empirical models based on the observed MBH mass functions. By comparison, TNG300 with postprocessed MBH dynamics yields a range between 70% and 90% (20% and 30%) of the observed levels at low (high) frequencies. At low frequencies, ASTRID predicts that the bulk of the GWB originates from MBHBs with massesM_tot = 1–3 × 10⁹M_⊙peaking atz ≈ 0.3, consistent with TNG300. Notably, both simulations predict significant contributions from minor mergers (q < 0.2) by up to ∼40%. By tracing the full merger trees of local MBHs in ASTRID, we show that they generate gravitational waves at ∼10%–80% of the maximum signal assuming no accretion and recent equal-mass mergers. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of on-the-fly MBH dynamics, the lack of which leads to 3–5 times excessive mass growth by merger, and a boost to the GWB prediction from this overestimated mass function, especially at high frequencies. 

Abstract From the luminous quasars atz∼ 6 to the recentz∼ 9–11 active galactic nuclei (AGN) revealed by JWST, observations of the earliest black hole (BH) populations can provide unique constraints on BH evolution. We use theBRAHMAsimulations with constrained initial conditions to investigate BH assembly in extreme overdense regions. The simulations implement heavy ∼10⁴–10⁵M_⊙seeds forming in dense, metal-poor gas exposed to sufficient Lyman–Werner flux. With gas accretion modeled via the Bondi–Hoyle formalism and BH dynamics with a subgrid dynamical friction scheme, we isolate the impact of seeding, dynamics, accretion, and feedback on BH evolution. With fiducial stellar and AGN feedback inherited fromIllustrisTNG, accretion is suppressed atz≳ 9, leaving mergers as the dominant growth channel. Gas accretion dominates atz≲ 9, where permissive models (super-Eddington or low radiative efficiency) build ∼10⁹M_⊙BHs powering quasars byz∼ 6, while stricterIllustrisTNG-based prescriptions yield much smaller BHs (∼10⁶–10⁸M_⊙). Our seed models strongly affect mergers atz≳ 9: only the most lenient models (with ∼10⁵M_⊙seeds) produce enough BH mergers to reach ≳10⁶M_⊙byz∼ 10, consistent with current estimates for GN-z11. Our dynamical friction model gives low merger efficiencies. Therefore, even in such extreme regions, we are unable to produce ≳10⁷M_⊙BHs byz∼ 9–10, as currently inferred for GHZ9, UHZ1, and CAPERS-LRD-z9. If the BH-to-stellar mass ratios of these sources are indeed so extreme, they would require either very short BH merger timescales or reduced AGN thermal feedback. Weaker stellar feedback boosts both star formation and BH accretion and cannot raise these ratios. 

ABSTRACT We investigate the effect of the cutting-edge circumbinary disc (CBD) evolution models on massive black hole binary (MBHB) populations and the gravitational wave background (GWB). We show that CBD-driven evolution leaves a tell-tale signature in MBHB populations, by driving binaries towards an equilibrium eccentricity that depends on the binary mass ratio. We find high orbital eccentricities ($$e_{\rm b} \sim 0.5$$) as MBHBs enter multimessenger observable frequency bands. The CBD-induced eccentricity distribution of MBHB populations in observable bands is independent of the initial eccentricity distribution at binary formation, erasing any memory of eccentricities induced in the large-scale dynamics of merging galaxies. Our results suggest that eccentric MBHBs are the rule rather than the exception in upcoming transient surveys, provided that CBDs regularly form in MBHB systems. We show that the GWB amplitude is sensitive to CBD-driven preferential accretion onto the secondary, resulting in an increase in GWB amplitude $$A_{\rm yr^{-1}}$$ by over 100 per cent with just 10 per cent Eddington accretion. As we self-consistently allow for binary hardening and softening, we show that CBD-driven orbital expansion does not diminish the GWB amplitude, and instead increases the amplitude by a small amount. We further present detection rates and population statistics of MBHBs with $$M_{\rm b} \gtrsim 10^6 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$ in Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, showing that most binaries have equal mass ratios and can retain residual eccentricities up to $$e_{\rm b} \sim 10^{-3}$$ due to CBD-driven evolution. 

ABSTRACT The origin of the ‘seeds’ of supermassive black holes (BHs) continues to be a puzzle, as it is currently unclear if the imprints of early seed formation could survive to today. We examine the signatures of seeding in the local Universe using five $$[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$$BRAHMA simulation boxes run to $z=0$. They initialize $$1.5\times 10^5~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs using different seeding models. The first four boxes initialize BHs as heavy seeds using criteria that depend on dense and metal-poor gas, Lyman–Werner radiation, gas spin, and environmental richness. The fifth box initializes BHs as descendants of lower mass seeds ($$\sim 10^3~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$) using a new stochastic seed model built in our previous work. In our simulations, we find that the abundances and properties of $$\sim 10^5-10^6~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ local BHs hosted in $$M_*\lesssim 10^{9}~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ dwarf galaxies, are sensitive to the assumed seeding criteria. This is for two reasons: (1) there is a substantial population of local $$\sim 10^5~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs that are ungrown relics of early seeds from $$z\sim 5-10$$; (2) BH growth up to $$\sim 10^6~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ is dominated by mergers in our simulations all the way down to $$z\sim 0$$. As the contribution from gas accretion increases, the signatures of seeding start to weaken in more massive $$\gtrsim 10^6~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs, and they are erased for $$\gtrsim 10^7~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs. The different seed models explored here predict abundances of local $$\sim 10^6~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs ranging from $$\sim 0.01-0.05~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}$$ with occupation fractions of $$\sim 20-100~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ for $$M_*\sim 10^{9}~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ galaxies. These results highlight the potential for placing constraints on seeding models using local $$\sim 10^5-10^6~\rm {M}_{\odot }$$ BHs hosted in dwarf galaxies. Since merger dynamics and accretion physics impact the persistence of seeding signatures, and both high and low mass seed models can produce similar local BH populations, disentangling their roles will require combining high and low redshift constraints. 

Abstract Pulsar timing arrays have found evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). Assuming that the GWB is produced by supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), the next gravitational-wave (GW) signals astronomers anticipate are continuous waves (CWs) from single SMBHBs and their associated GWB anisotropy. The prospects for detecting CWs and anisotropy are highly dependent on the astrophysics of SMBHB populations. Thus, information from single sources can break degeneracies in astrophysical models and place much more stringent constraints than the GWB alone. We simulate and evolve SMBHB populations, model their GWs, and calculate their anisotropy and detectability. We investigate how varying components of our semianalytic model, including the galaxy stellar mass function, the SMBH–host galaxy relation (M_BH–M_bulge), and the binary evolution prescription, impact the expected detections. The CW occurrence rate is greatest for few total binaries, high SMBHB masses, large scatter inM_BH–M_bulge, and long hardening times. The occurrence rate depends most on the binary evolution parameters, implying that CWs offer a novel avenue to probe binary evolution. The most detectable CW sources are in the lowest frequency bin for a 16.03 yr PTA, have masses from ∼10⁹to 10¹⁰M_⊙, and are ∼1 Gpc away. The level of anisotropy increases with frequency, with the angular power spectrum over multipole modesℓvarying in low-frequencyC_ℓ>0/C₀from ∼5 × 10⁻³to ∼2 × 10⁻¹, depending on the model; typical values are near current upper limits. Observing this anisotropy would support SMBHB models for the GWB over cosmological models, which tend to be isotropic. 

ABSTRACT Massive black hole (MBH) binaries can form following a galaxy merger, but this may not always lead to a MBH binary merger within a Hubble time. The merger time-scale depends on how efficiently the MBHs lose orbital energy to the gas and stellar background, and to gravitational waves (GWs). In systems where these mechanisms are inefficient, the binary inspiral time can be long enough for a subsequent galaxy merger to bring a third MBH into the system. In this work, we identify and characterize the population of triple MBH systems in the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We find a substantial occurrence rate of triple MBH systems: in our fiducial model, 22 per cent of all binary systems form triples, and $$\gt 70{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of these involve binaries that would not otherwise merge by z = 0. Furthermore, a significant subset of triples (6 per cent of all binaries, or more than a quarter of all triples) form a triple system at parsec scales, where the three BHs are most likely to undergo a strong three-body interaction. Crucially, we find that the rate of triple occurrence has only a weak dependence on key parameters of the binary inspiral model (binary eccentricity and stellar loss-cone refilling rate). We also do not observe strong trends in the host galaxy properties for binary versus triple MBH populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for triple systems to increase MBH merger rates, thereby enhancing the low-frequency GW signals detectable with pulsar timing arrays and with LISA.