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Researchers increasingly rely on aggregations of radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites as proxies for past human populations. This approach has been critiqued on several grounds, including the assumptions that material is deposited, preserved, and sampled in proportion to past population size. However, various attempts to quantitatively assess the approach suggest there may be some validity in assuming date counts reflect relative population size. To add to this conversation, here we conduct a preliminary analysis coupling estimates of ethnographic population density with late Holocene radiocarbon dates across all counties in California. Results show that counts of late Holocene radiocarbon-dated archaeological sites increase significantly as a function of ethnographic population density. This trend is robust across varying sampling windows over the last 5000 BP. Though the majority of variation in dated-site counts remains unexplained by population density. Outliers reveal how departures from the central trend may be influenced by regional differences in research traditions, development-driven contract work, organic preservation, and landscape taphonomy. Overall, this exercise provides some support for the “dates-as-data” approach and offers insights into the conditions where the underlying assumptions may or may not hold. 

Abstract A tubular bone bead dating to ~ 12,940 BP was recovered from a hearth-centered activity area at the La Prele Mammoth site in Converse County, Wyoming, USA. This is the oldest known bead from the Western Hemisphere. To determine the taxonomic origin of the bead, we extracted collagen for zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry (ZooMS). We also used micro-CT scanning for morphological analysis to determine likely skeletal elements used for its production. We conclude that the bead was made from a metapodial or proximal phalanx of a hare (Lepus sp.). This find represents the first secure evidence for the use of hares during the Clovis period. While the use of hare bone for the manufacture of beads was a common practice in western North America during the Holocene, its origins can now be traced back to at least the terminal Pleistocene. 

The La Prele site (ca. 12,940 cal BP) is a deeply buried, single-component mammoth kill and campsite in Wyoming (USA). The site was discovered eroding from a creek bank 3 m deep within a 7-m tall terrace scarp, and prior investigations have primarily focused on excavations accessible from the creek bank, using heavy machinery to remove sterile overburden to access the deeply buried deposits. This approach has allowed excavations to occur safely outside of deep pits, but it has limited our ability to assess the total size and density of the site. To determine total site extent, we conducted systematic bucket auger testing of the La Prele site terrace, attempting 189 augers between 1.6 m and 6.2 m deep across the landform. We use a simulation and other mathematical procedures to infer artifact density from auger artifact counts and interpolate artifact densities across the site using GIS. We determine that La Prele is around 4500 m2 in area and likely contains a buried bison bonebed and two additional artifact concentrations comparable to or exceeding the size and density of previously excavated areas. We use these insights to infer Early Paleoindian group size, concluding that around 30 people occupied La Prele. 

The La Prele Mammoth site (48CO1401), located in Converse County, Wyoming, contains a Clovis-age occupation associated with the remains of a subadult mammoth (Mammuthus columbi). In this paper, we present the geochronological and geoarchaeological context of the site. The La Prele Mammoth site is buried in an alluvial terrace of La Prele Creek, a tributary of the North Platte River, which acts as an important migration corridor through the Rocky Mountains. Archaeological remains, buried by a series of flood deposits, occur within or below a well-developed buried A horizon, referred to as the Mammoth Soil. Bioturbation of the site has resulted in vertical artifact movement, though peaks in artifact density are evident in vertical artifact distributions and likely represent the occupation surface. Radiocarbon dating of this occupation, including several new dates, suggests an age of 12,941 ± 56 calendar years ago (cal yr BP). 

The northern American Southwest provides one of the most well-documented cases of human population growth and decline in the world. The geographic extent of this decline in North America is unknown owing to the lack of high-resolution palaeodemographic data from regions across and beyond the greater Southwest, where archaeological radiocarbon data are often the only available proxy for investigating these palaeodemographic processes. Radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest suggest widespread population collapses from AD 1300 to 1600. However, radiocarbon data have potential biases caused by variable radiocarbon sample preservation, sample collection and the nonlinearity of the radiocarbon calibration curve. In order to be confident in the wider trends seen in radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest, here we focus on regions that have multiple palaeodemographic proxies and compare those proxies to radiocarbon time series. We develop a new method for time series analysis and comparison between dendrochronological data and radiocarbon data. Results confirm a multiple proxy decline in human populations across the Upland US Southwest, Central Mesa Verde and Northern Rio Grande from AD 1300 to 1600. These results lend confidence to single proxy radiocarbon-based reconstructions of palaeodemography outside the Southwest that suggest post-AD 1300 population declines in many parts of North America. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography’. 

Questions regarding population stability among animals and plants are fundamental to population ecology, yet this has not been a topic studied by archeologists focusing on prehistoric human populations. This is an important knowledge gap. The fluctuation of human populations over decades to centuries – population instability – may constrain the expansion of human economies. A first step toward describing basic patterns of population stability would be to identify sizes of fluctuations through time, since smaller fluctuations are more stable than larger fluctuations. We conduct a biogeographic analysis of the long-term stability of human societies in North America using a continental scale radiocarbon dataset. Our analysis compares the stability of summed calibrated radiocarbon date probability distributions (SPDs) with subsistence strategies and modeled climate stability between 6000 and 300 BP. This coarse-grained analysis reveals general trends regarding the stability of human systems in North America that future studies may build upon. Our results demonstrate that agricultural sequences have more stable SPDs than hunter-gatherer sequences in general, but agricultural sequences also experience rare, extreme increases and decreases in SPDs not seen among hunter-gatherers. We propose that the adoption of agriculture has the unintended consequence of increasing population density and stability over most time scales, but also increases the vulnerability of populations to large, rare changes. Conversely, hunter-gatherer systems remain flexible and less vulnerable to large population changes. Climate stability may have an indirect effect on long-term population stability, and climate shocks may be buffered by other aspects of subsistence strategies prior to affecting human demography. 

Abstract Over the last decade, archaeologists have turned to large radiocarbon ( 14 C) data sets to infer prehistoric population size and change. An outstanding question concerns just how direct of an estimate 14 C dates are for human populations. In this paper we propose that 14 C dates are a better estimate of energy consumption, rather than an unmediated, proportional estimate of population size. We use a parametric model to describe the relationship between population size, economic complexity and energy consumption in human societies, and then parametrize the model using data from modern contexts. Our results suggest that energy consumption scales sub-linearly with population size, which means that the analysis of a large 14 C time-series has the potential to misestimate rates of population change and absolute population size. Energy consumption is also an exponential function of economic complexity. Thus, the 14 C record could change semi-independent of population as complexity grows or declines. Scaling models are an important tool for stimulating future research to tease apart the different effects of population and social complexity on energy consumption, and explain variation in the forms of 14 C date time-series in different regions.